沪铜市场周报：供给收敛需求回升，沪铜或将有所支撑-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be supported by converging supply and rising demand. The fundamentals suggest a slowdown in supply and a gradual recovery in demand, with a positive industry outlook [6]. - The cost - support logic for copper prices remains strong due to negative TC fees and rising raw material prices. Domestic refined copper production may decline slightly, while downstream demand is expected to recover due to macro - policy support and the approaching traditional consumption season [6]. - The overall inventory will remain at a medium - low level, and the inventory accumulated during the off - season will gradually be depleted as consumption picks up [6]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the trading rhythm and risk [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - Market Performance: The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly on the weekly line, with a weekly increase of +0.91% and an amplitude of 1.5%. The closing price of the main contract was 79,410 yuan/ton [6]. - International and Domestic Policies: The US included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list. In China, policies are being improved to expand domestic demand and support enterprise innovation and employment [6]. - Fundamentals: TC fees are negative, and raw material prices are rising, providing cost support for copper prices. Domestic copper concentrate port inventory is low, and refined copper production may decline. Export demand may fall due to US tariffs, while domestic demand is expected to recover [6]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - Contract and Spot Prices: As of August 29, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract had a basis of - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from last week. The main contract price was 79,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 720 yuan/ton from last week, and the position was 173,826 lots, an increase of 52,924 lots. The 1 electrolytic copper spot average price was 79,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton from last week [11][15]. - Premium and Position: The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 60 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from last week. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 12,236 lots, a decrease of 10,323 lots from last week [22]. - Implied Volatility: As of August 29, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper at - the - money option contract fell to around the 25th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.8325, a decrease of 0.0184 from last week [27]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Mining Quotes and Processing Fees: The copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 69,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week. The southern rough copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - Imports and Price Difference: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons from June, a growth rate of 8.96%, and a year - on - year increase of 18.41%. The refined - scrap copper price difference (tax - included) was 1,415.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 378.84 yuan/ton from last week [35]. - Global Production and Inventory: As of June 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,916 thousand tons, a decrease of 81 thousand tons from May, a decline of 4.06%. The global capacity utilization rate was 79%, a decrease of 0.9% from May. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 473,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous period [40]. 3.3.2. Supply - side of the Industry - Refined Copper Production: As of July 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from June, a decline of 2.46%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14%. As of May 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,395 thousand tons, an increase of 40 thousand tons from April, a growth rate of 1.7%. The capacity utilization rate was 80.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from April [45]. - Refined Copper Imports: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 335,969.236 tons, a decrease of 1,073.33 tons from June, a decline of 0.32%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. The import profit and loss amount was 413.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 333.66 yuan/ton from last week [50][51]. - Social Inventory: As of the latest data, the LME total inventory increased by 1,975 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 2,726 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,736 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 127,900 tons, an increase of 7,900 tons from last week [54]. 3.3.3. Downstream and Application - Copper Products: As of July 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from June, a decline of 2.04%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from June, a growth rate of 4.35%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.09% [58]. - Application Fields: - Power Grid and Appliances: As of July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 3.4% and 12.5% respectively. The monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 2.4%, 1.5%, 5%, 2.9%, and - 6.5% year - on - year respectively [64]. - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits: As of July 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion was 5.358 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month increase of 14.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 294.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and a month - on - month increase of 23.02% [71]. 3.3.4. Overall Situation - Global Supply - Demand: As of June 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 36 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance value was 46,500 tons [76].