广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250829

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View New rubber listing is slow, overseas ship arrivals are few, inventory may continue to decline, fundamentals remain strong, and there is still upward potential. The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan. Follow the raw material supply during the peak season in the main production areas. If the supply is smooth, consider shorting at high levels [1]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On August 28, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - grade rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained at 14,900 yuan, with a 0% change. The basis of whole - milk rubber switched to the 2509 contract decreased by 21.51% to - 860 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 1.02% to 14,700 yuan [1]. - Monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.14% to - 982 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.88% to - 90 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.37% to 1075 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamental Data: In June, Thailand's rubber production increased by 44.23% to 392,600 tons, Indonesia's decreased by 12.03% to 176,200 tons, India's increased by 30.82% to 62,400 tons, and China's increased by 6.8% to 103,200 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.36% to 72.77%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 0.92% to 63.84%. In July, domestic tire production decreased by 8.16% to 10,274,900 tons, and tire exports increased by 10.51% to 6,665,000 pieces [1]. - Inventory Change: As of August 28, the bonded area inventory decreased by 0.50% to 616,731 tons, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 3.47% to 44,857 tons [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will increase during the dry season, raising the cost of industrial silicon. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. If some production capacity is cleared in the long - term, supply pressure will ease. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On August 28, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 0.54% to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 decreased by 12.26% [2]. - Monthly Spread: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 40.00% to - 35 yuan/ton, the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 33.33% to - 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamental Data: Nationally, industrial silicon production increased by 3.23% to 338,300 tons, Xinjiang's production decreased by 15.21% to 150,300 tons, Yunnan's increased by 153.86% to 41,200 tons, and Sichuan's increased by 31.05% to 48,500 tons. The national开工率 increased by 2.47% to 52.61% [2]. - Inventory Change: As of August 28, Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 0.83% to 119,100 tons, Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.94% to 31,600 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.37% to 541,000 tons [2]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In August, polysilicon supply and demand both increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider shorting with put options at high levels [4]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On August 28, the average price of N - type re - feed material remained at 49,000 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis decreased by 314.52% to - 665 yuan/ton [4]. - Futures Price and Monthly Spread: The main contract price increased by 2.00% to 48,690 yuan/ton. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 180% to - 80 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamental Data (Weekly): Silicon wafer production increased by 27.18% to 15.63 GW, and polysilicon production increased by 6.53% to 2.91 kilotons [4]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): Polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 101,000 tons, imports increased by 47.48% to 120 tons, exports decreased by 3.92% to 210 tons, and net exports decreased by 32.44% to 100 tons [4]. - Inventory Change: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 14.46% to 21,300 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.68% to 18,050 tons [4]. Group 4: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current main contract has switched to the 2511 contract, and the disk valuation fluctuates around the delivery cost and receiving value. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to consider buying the 2601 contract at low levels [5]. Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Price: On August 27, the price of log 2509 decreased by 0.25% to 790 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of log 2511 increased by 0.86% to 821.5 yuan/cubic meter [5]. - Cost: Import Cost Calculation: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.156, and the import theoretical cost was 815.74 yuan [5]. - Supply: In July, the port shipment volume decreased by 1.51% to 1.733 million cubic meters, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32% to 47 [5]. - Inventory: As of August 22, the national coniferous log inventory decreased by 0.33% to 3.05 million cubic meters [5]. - Demand: As of August 22, the daily average log出库量 was 64,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 0.1% [5]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Soda Ash: The market is in a weak and volatile state. The overall demand has no growth expectation, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. It is recommended to hold short positions [6]. - Glass: The market is also in a weak and volatile state. The supply - demand imbalance exists, and the industry needs to clear production capacity. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for new driving factors [6]. Summary by Directory - Glass - related Price and Spread: On August 29, the prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The price of glass 2509 decreased by 1.52% to 970 yuan/ton [6]. - Soda Ash - related Price and Spread: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 increased by 0.29% to 1379 yuan/ton, and the price of soda ash 2509 decreased by 0.29% to 1187 yuan/ton [6]. - Supply: The soda ash开工率 decreased by 6.79% to 82.47%, and the weekly production decreased by 6.79% to 719,000 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged at 159,600 tons, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [6]. - Inventory: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.64% to 6,256,600 weight - cases, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.26% to 1.8675 million tons, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 0.89% to 500,700 tons [6]. - Real Estate Data: The new construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [6].