白糖市场周报：进口量增加，白糖承压走低-20250829

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined with a weekly drop of about 1.16%. Globally, the production outlook of major sugar - producing countries in Asia is favorable, leading to a looser supply expectation. However, the market is concerned about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, and there are signs of improved demand, causing the raw sugar price to maintain a low - level oscillating trend. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, and the import pressure is released. The sugar import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade, and August - September is still the peak period. Beet sugar will start to be crushed in September, increasing the supply temporarily. On the demand side, the pre - holiday stocking for the upcoming double festivals will boost consumption. In terms of inventory, due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, the inventory pressure is not large, but the number of processed sugar has increased, and the current inventory reduction process has slowed down significantly. For the new crop, the expected output in the new sugar - crushing season is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Overall, factors such as a large increase in imports, the upcoming crushing of northern sugar mills, and the high expected output in the new season will suppress the sugar price to oscillate downward. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses to control risks. Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Analysis: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract price dropped with a 1.16% weekly decline. International raw sugar prices were low - level oscillating. Domestic imports soared, and future supply will increase, while demand will be promoted by pre - holiday stocking. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses. - Future Focus: Consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract rose by about 0.36% this week. As of August 19, 2025, non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions decreased by 1.34% month - on - month, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2.60% month - on - month. The top 20 net positions of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 17,161 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 13,916 [10][19]. - Spot Market: As of August 22, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.74 cents per pound, down 1.12% month - on - month. As of August 29, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,010 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,830 yuan per ton. As of August 27, 2025, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,786 yuan per ton, up 0.29% month - on - month; the in - quota price was 4,552 yuan per ton, up 0.29% month - on - month. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,772 yuan per ton, up 0.30% month - on - month; the in - quota price was 4,542 yuan per ton, up 0.29% month - on - month. As of August 18, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,278 yuan per ton, down 2.22% month - on - month; the out - of - quota profit was 44 yuan per ton, down 42.86% month - on - month. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,288 yuan per ton, down 2.20% month - on - month; the out - of - quota profit was 58 yuan per ton [13][23][26][31]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025, with a national sugar production of 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of July 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 1.6123 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 99,500 tons. In July, China's sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons (76.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 76.4%. From January to July, the sugar import volume was 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [35][37][42]. - Demand Side: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45%. As of July 31, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.66%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.79663 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% [46][51]. ，3.4 Option and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - Option Market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of sugar this week was provided, but specific data was not detailed in the summary part [52]. - Stock Market: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was provided, but specific data was not detailed in the summary part [57].