螺纹钢市场周报：多空因素交织，螺纹期价震荡偏弱-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of rebar futures fluctuated weakly due to the interweaving of multiple and short - term factors. The RB2601 contract may consolidate in the range of 3100 - 3220 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [2][7] - Although the steel market is currently relatively weak, as construction steel enters the peak season, downstream may have restocking demand, and it is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [56] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: As of August 29, the price of the rebar main contract was 3160 yuan/ton (- 35 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3300 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan/ton). Rebar production increased from a decline, with a weekly output of 220.56 million tons (+ 5.91 million tons, + 58.34 million tons year - on - year). Apparent demand continued to rise, with a current period demand of 204.21 million tons (+ 9.41 million tons, - 14.04 million tons year - on - year). Factory inventories decreased while social inventories continued to increase, with a total rebar inventory of 623.39 million tons (+ 16.35 million tons, + 27.6 million tons year - on - year). The steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points from last year [5] - Market Outlook: Overseas, the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut by the Fed was strengthened. Domestically, policies to expand service consumption will be introduced, and multiple banks have cut RMB deposit rates. In terms of supply and demand, rebar weekly production increased, the capacity utilization rate was 48.35%, and the EAF steel operating rate decreased again; end - users purchased on demand, and inventories increased for five consecutive weeks. In terms of cost, iron ore was firm, coal and coke fluctuated weakly. Technically, the RB2601 contract was under pressure below multiple moving averages [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: This week, the RB2601 contract fluctuated weakly. The RB2510 contract was stronger than the RB2601 contract, and the spread on the 29th was - 70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton [13] - Warehouse Receipts and Positions: On August 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's rebar warehouse receipts were 199,497 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,864 tons. The net short position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract was 184,391 lots, an increase of 80,192 lots from the previous week [19] - Spot Price and Basis: On August 29, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade rebar was 3300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3333 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened, with a basis of 140 yuan/ton on the 29th, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [25] 3.3 Upstream Market - Raw Material Prices: On August 29, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 828 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [29] - Port Conditions: The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased, and port inventories decreased. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 143.8802 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 561,800 tons [33] - Coking Plant Conditions: The capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventories increased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.70%, a decrease of 1.47%; daily coke output was 512,800 tons, a decrease of 10,300 tons; coke inventories were 398,100 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons [37] 3.4 Industry Conditions - Supply Side: In July, the national crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. On August 29, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar was 220.56 million tons, an increase of 5.91 million tons from last week. The EAF steel operating rate decreased [41][44][47] - Inventory: On August 28, the in - factory inventory of rebar was 169.62 million tons, a decrease of 4.91 million tons from last week. The social inventory of 35 major cities was 453.77 million tons, an increase of 21.26 million tons from last week. The total rebar inventory was 623.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.35 million tons [50] - Demand Side: From January to July 2025, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year [53] 3.5 Option Market - It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options as construction steel enters the peak season and downstream may have restocking demand [56]