瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market fluctuated at a low level. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong dropped to 1,660 - 1,680 yuan/ton, with the average price down 80 yuan/ton week - on - week. The short - term price of the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,710 - 1,780 yuan [6]. - Recently, some newly added units have been under maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in the daily output of domestic urea. Next week, it is expected that 2 enterprises will plan to stop production and 3 stopped enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of output reduction is high [6]. - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season, with a slight increasing trend in fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu and Anhui. Industrial compound fertilizers are mainly for phased replenishment, and the enterprise operating rate has decreased. Affected by policies, the adjustment of the enterprise operating rate is limited, but some are expected to increase starting from the 4th [6]. - Domestic demand is advancing slowly, and the inventory of some enterprises has increased slightly. Although some enterprises have export orders next week, due to environmental protection restrictions on shipping, the enterprise inventory is still expected to increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: This week, the domestic urea market fluctuated at a low level. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong dropped to 1,660 - 1,680 yuan/ton, with the average price down 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. - Market Outlook: Output may decrease; agricultural demand is in an off - season with a slight increase in some areas; industrial demand is mainly for phased replenishment; inventory is expected to increase [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,710 - 1,780 yuan in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - Price Trend: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 0.04% [9]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of August 29, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 45 [13]. - Position Analysis: Not detailed in the provided content. - Warehouse Receipt Trend: As of August 29, there were 6,473 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, an increase of 2,400 compared with last week [20]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - Domestic Spot Price: As of August 28, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1,720 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [26]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of August 28, the FOB price of urea in China was 447.5 US dollars/ton, down 2.5 US dollars/ton compared with last week [29]. - Basis Trend: As of August 28, the urea basis was - 43 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton compared with last week [34]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - As of August 27, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 28, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 299 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.18 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [37]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Capacity Utilization and Output: As of August 28, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 134.92 tons, down 1.19 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%; the capacity utilization rate was 82.39%, down 1.60% from the previous period, and the trend changed from rising to falling [40]. - Inventory: As of August 28, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 60 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.76%. As of August 27, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 108.58 tons, an increase of 6.19 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.05% [43]. - Export: In July 2025, China's urea export volume was 56.72 tons, a month - on - month increase of 756.80% and a year - on - year increase of 614.36% [46]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 39.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.62 percentage points. It is expected that the adjustment of the enterprise operating rate will be limited in the next period, but some are expected to increase starting from the 4th. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.50%, an increase of 11.90 percentage points compared with last week [49].