铁矿石市场周报：铁水高位运行，铁矿期价震荡偏强-20250829

Report Title - Iron Ore Market Weekly Report: High Pig Iron Production, Iron Ore Futures Prices Fluctuating Strongly [2] Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomically, overseas Fed's expected interest - rate cuts and domestic policies to expand service consumption and bank deposit - rate cuts provide a favorable environment. In terms of supply and demand, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals decline, and domestic port inventories turn from increasing to decreasing. With the support on the demand side, the I2601 contract may fluctuate upwards. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options [8][56] Summaries by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights 1.1 Price - As of August 29, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 787.5 (+17.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macarthur fines at Qingdao Port was 828 (+8) yuan/dry ton [6] 1.2 Shipment - From August 18 - 24, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3315.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 90.8 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2760.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.4 million tons [6] 1.3 Arrival - From August 18 - 24, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2462.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 240.8 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2393.3 million tons, a decrease of 83.3 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 1153.0 million tons, a decrease of 99.5 million tons [6] 1.4 Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 240.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 19.24 million tons [6] 1.5 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14388.02 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56.18 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1644.36 million tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9007.19 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.28 million tons [6] 1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 63.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.74 percentage points [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2601 contract fluctuated strongly. It was stronger than the I2605 contract, and the spread on the 29th was 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 yuan/ton [14] 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On August 29, the number of Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore warehouse receipts was 1900, a week - on - week decrease of 100. The net short position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 21871, an increase of 25563 from the previous week [20] 2.3 Spot Price - On August 29, the price of 61% Australian Macarthur fines at Qingdao Port was 828 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on the 29th was 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton [26] 3. Industry Situation 3.1 Shipment and Arrival - From August 18 - 24, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 90.8 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 240.8 million tons week - on - week [31] 3.2 Port Inventory - This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14388.02 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56.18 million tons. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills was 9007.19 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.28 million tons [35] 3.3 Inventory Availability - As of August 28, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 20 days, a week - on - week increase of 0 days. On the 28th, the BDI was 2017, a week - on - week increase of 73 [40] 3.4 Import and Mine Capacity Utilization - In July 2025, China's iron ore imports decreased by 1.3% month - on - month. As of August 22, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines decreased by 1.72% [43] 3.5 Iron Ore Production - In July 2025, China's iron ore concentrate production decreased by 0.8% month - on - month [47] 4. Downstream Situation 4.1 Crude Steel Production - In July 2025, China's crude steel production was 7966 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [50] 4.2 Steel Mill Operating Rate and Pig Iron Production - On August 29, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The daily average pig iron production was 240.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 million tons [53] 5. Options Market - It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options due to high pig iron production, the change of port inventory from increasing to decreasing, and the expected increase in steel production after September 3 [56]