贵金属期货周报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the restart of the trade war, the economic recession restricts the consumer demand for gold and silver jewelry; the demand for precious metals lies in the choice of sovereign funds in the context of de - dollarization; a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts has been tracked [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver Market Overview - One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - Trump plans to impose tariffs on furniture imported from other countries, and will introduce furniture tariffs soon with high rates, and implement export restrictions and tariff measures against foreign digital taxes; he also plans to cut drug prices by 1400% - 1500% and quickly impose tariffs on drugs [7] - Canada will cancel counter - tariff measures on most US goods under the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement on September 1st, but will temporarily maintain tariffs on US automobiles, steel, and aluminum [7] - Fitch confirms the US rating as "AA+"; the outlook is stable [7] - The US government acquires a 9.9% stake in Intel at a price of $20.47 per share, and Intel believes that government ownership may pose risks to its business and may increase to 15% [7] - The European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn believes that there is no need for "preventive interest rate cuts" as the inflation rate has reached 2%; the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expects the tight labor market to continue to put upward pressure on wages [2][3][7] - US officials plan to impose a unified tariff of $80 - $200 on packages sent to the US in the next six months, and then levy tariffs according to specific tariff rates [7] - The Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey believes that the UK faces "severe challenges" of potential weak economic growth and a decline in labor force participation rate [7] - Apple is exploring the use of Google's Gemini AI to support the new version of Siri; Elon Musk open - sources Grok 2.5; xAI under Elon Musk sues Apple and OpenAI, accusing them of violating antitrust laws [7] - The Federal Reserve's Logan believes that there is still room for the banking system to reduce reserves, and the standing repurchase facility may be restarted in September; it is necessary to continue exploring whether it is still the optimal choice to communicate the federal funds rate target through the range form [2][3][7] - The White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett believes that it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to consider an interest rate cut, and it will take several months to decide on the successor to the Federal Reserve Chairman [7] - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde believes that the European economy is resilient but not prosperous, and the impact of tariffs on European GDP may be small [7] - The French Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne calls for a confidence vote on September 8th and will start negotiations with the opposition next week; the yield of French 30 - year government bonds has reached a 14 - year high, and the yield spread between French and German 10 - year government bonds has reached a new high since April [7] - NVIDIA's performance exceeds expectations, but its revenue outlook is a bit dull, and it increases its share repurchase by $60 billion [7] - Cook sues Trump over the dismissal incident, and Powell is also a defendant. A US judge will hold a hearing on Cook's lawsuit against Trump this Friday, and the case is expected to end up in the Supreme Court [2][3][7] - The EU proposes a legislative proposal to cancel some US goods tariffs to promote the US to lower automobile tariffs, and plans to accelerate the legislative process to fully cancel tariffs on US industrial products by the end of this weekend to meet Trump's requirements [7] - The Japanese Minister of Economic Revitalization Akazawa Ryosei visits the US again, urging the US to implement the automobile tariff reduction agreement [7] - The US is considering measures to influence local Federal Reserve banks and strengthen the review of the selection method of local Federal Reserve bank presidents. Trump says he will soon hold a majority in the Federal Reserve [2][3][7] - The US Commerce Secretary is studying potential equity investment opportunities in the defense sector and other industries [7] - The White House trade advisor says that if India stops buying Russian oil, it can get a 25% tariff discount [7] - A nominee for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors nominated by Trump is expected to be confirmed before the Federal Reserve's September resolution [7] - Rehn believes that Trump's pressure on the independence of the Federal Reserve may have a major global impact on financial markets and the real economy [7] 3.2 Gold and Silver Market Overview - Gold Market Tracking - COMEX gold futures and options: The latest long - position holding of managed funds is 122,450 contracts, and the short - position holding is 35,978 contracts; the 5 - day increase in long - position holding is - 4%, and the short - position holding is - 1%; the 1 - week increase in long - position holding is - 5,556 contracts, and the short - position holding is 2,599 contracts [8] - Gold ETFs: The latest holding of SPDR Gold ETF is 862 tons, and iShares Gold ETF is 402 tons; the 5 - day increase in SPDR is - 2 tons, and iShares is - 4 tons; the 1 - week increase in SPDR is 6 tons, and iShares is - 4 tons [8] - Gold futures positions: The latest position is 407,927 hands, with a 5 - day increase of 16,492 hands and a 1 - week increase of 46,665 hands [8] - Gold warehouse receipts: The Shanghai warehouse receipt is 3 tons, with a 5 - day increase of - 0 tons and a 1 - week increase of - 1 ton; the overseas inventory is 617 ounces, with a 5 - day increase of 1 ounce and a 1 - week increase of - 2 ounces [8] 3.3 Gold and Silver Market Overview - Silver Market Tracking - COMEX silver futures and options: The latest long - position holding of managed funds is 44,277 contracts, and the short - position holding is 27,801 contracts; the 5 - day increase in long - position holding is 57 contracts, and the short - position holding is 58 contracts; the 1 - week increase in long - position holding is - 4,423 contracts, and the short - position holding is - 4,757 contracts [13] - Silver ETFs: The latest holding of SLV Silver ETF is 13,802 tons, with a 5 - day increase of 58 tons and a 10 - day increase of - 24 tons [13] - Silver futures positions: The latest position is 971,795 hands, with a 5 - day increase of 78,420 hands and a 10 - day increase of 87,220 hands [13] - Silver warehouse receipts: The Shanghai warehouse receipt is 1,075 tons, with a 5 - day increase of - 7 tons and a 10 - day increase of 0 tons; the overseas inventory is 8,398 tons, with a 5 - day increase of - 52 tons and a 10 - day increase of - 61 tons [13] 3.4 Gold and Silver Market Overview - Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - The import gold hedging profit margin and import silver hedging profit margin have fluctuated over time, but specific data trends are presented in the form of a graph [19] 3.5 Factors Affecting the Price Trend of Precious Metals - Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - The non - commercial net long - position holding of the ICE dollar index futures and options has fluctuated over time, and the specific data trends are presented in the form of a graph [21] 3.6 Factors Affecting the Price Trend of Precious Metals - US Treasury Bond Futures Position Tracking - The non - commercial net long - position holdings of CBOT 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year US Treasury bond futures and options have fluctuated over time, and the specific data trends are presented in the form of a graph [24] 3.7 Factors Affecting the Price Trend of Precious Metals - US Inflation Expectation - The 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year break - even inflation rates in the US have fluctuated from July 1st to August 28th, 2025, with specific values presented in the form of a graph [28] 3.8 Factors Affecting the Price Trend of Precious Metals - US Real Interest Rate - The monthly real yield curves of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds have fluctuated over time, and the specific data trends are presented in the form of a graph [30] 3.9 Factors Affecting the Price Trend of Precious Metals - US Interest Rate Term Structure - The US Treasury bond interest rates, real interest rates (based on PCE and linearly interpolated within the year), and inflation expectations (linearly interpolated within the year) for different terms (1M - 30Y) are presented in the form of a graph [32][33] 3.10 Factors Affecting the Price Trend of Precious Metals - 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yield Spread between the US and Major Non - US Countries - The yield spreads between 2 - year US Treasury bonds and 2 - year Treasury bonds of the UK, Japan, China, and Germany have fluctuated over time, and the specific data trends are presented in the form of a graph [35]