油料周报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The oilseed and oil sectors are facing various supply - demand challenges. The oilmeal market has potential supply contractions, while the oil market is generally weak with high inventories. Without bio - diesel speculation, the oil market is likely to return to a weak fundamental state and may experience further short - term adjustments [6][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilmeal Market 1.1 Soybean Meal - In August, the USDA cut the U.S. soybean area, potentially leading to a supply contraction in the global market in the fourth quarter. The U.S. soybean is entering the harvest period, and its inventory is expected to decline. There is uncertainty about Sino - U.S. tariffs, and domestic soybean purchases in November are not active. The domestic spot price has stopped falling and is in a low - level oscillation. As the domestic futures market drops, the spot basis strengthens, presenting opportunities for a low - level rebound [6]. 1.2 Rapeseed Meal - The short - term fundamentals are relatively stable. The potential anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant drop in imports, but there is uncertainty before the tariffs are finalized. Domestic rapeseed inventory is low, and insufficient imports may slow down rapeseed crushing, affecting the supply of domestic rapeseed meal and oil. The domestic rapeseed meal market has price but low trading volume, with low overall inventory, and the medium - term outlook is positive. The uncertainty lies in future tariff negotiations with Canada and the implementation of import policies [6]. 2. Oil Market 2.1 Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil production is increasing, leading to high - level inventory accumulation. The price difference with other oils may cause demand substitution. After the speculation on soybean oil exports, there is no further progress. If exports do not meet expectations, the domestic market may face an oversupply situation. Future attention should be paid to the price difference and substitution effects of overseas bio - diesel and palm oil [37]. 2.2 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are in a high - level oscillation. The delay of Indonesia's B50 program may weaken the bio - diesel outlook. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and the overseas supply pressure has slightly eased, but the seasonal inventory build - up is not over. Attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil market and bio - diesel. Domestic inventory is high and increasing, and the supply - demand situation is weak. Higher import costs may lead to price drops if the overseas market weakens [38]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed sector lacks new topics, and during the off - season, inventory reduction is slow, putting pressure on the market. However, anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce the supply of rapeseed oil. Currently, the basis of East China crude rapeseed oil has fallen to near par, with low terminal purchasing willingness and weak trading in many regions, and the basis continues to decline slightly [39].