Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend. The main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead futures was active, rising 0.36%. Overall, Shanghai lead prices mainly increased slightly due to decreasing supply and stable demand [4]. - In terms of supply, lead ore production is shrinking due to factors such as declining grades, rising costs, and environmental restrictions. Although the smelter operating rate remains stable, issues like unstable raw material supply and equipment maintenance exist, and the progress of new - capacity launch is slow, resulting in tight overall supply, which supports lead prices. However, the operating rate of primary lead is relatively stronger than that of secondary lead, and some primary lead smelters adjust production decisions according to lead price fluctuations, causing slight fluctuations in primary lead production. The supply of secondary lead shows significant regional differences, with tight supply of waste battery raw materials, low confidence among smelters, and production limitations in some enterprises due to environmental inspections, increasing the uncertainty of secondary lead supply. The operating rate of secondary lead has slightly decreased and remained at a relatively low level, and the profits of secondary lead enterprises have not improved, so the operating rate is expected to remain stable [4]. - On the demand side, lead - acid batteries, as the main consumption area of lead, have relatively stable demand for automobile starting batteries. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is gradually warming up, and the market expects an increase in lead demand in the main consumption areas, and the energy - storage demand in emerging fields shows a good trend. Currently, when prices rise, spot transactions are average, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state. Although the atmosphere of downstream bargain - hunting has improved marginally, and some battery factories have production - increasing plans, overall demand has not shown a significant explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage [4]. - In terms of inventory, foreign lead inventories have decreased, domestic inventories have increased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased, with overall inventory remaining unchanged. Currently, demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction, but it is expected to gradually strengthen, supporting lead prices. Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decrease, demand will gradually increase, and considering the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [4]. - The main contract 2510 of Shanghai lead is expected to rise in a volatile manner, with a volatility range of 16,700 - 17,200 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,300. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend. The main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead futures was active, rising 0.36%. Overall, Shanghai lead prices mainly increased slightly due to decreasing supply and stable demand [4]. - Market Outlook: Supply is expected to be tight, with shrinking lead ore production and unstable raw material supply for smelters. The operating rate of primary lead is relatively strong, but production may fluctuate. The supply of secondary lead has significant regional differences and high uncertainty. Demand is in a slow recovery stage, with stable demand for automobile starting batteries and expected growth in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. Inventory has not been effectively reduced by demand but is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [4]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract 2510 of Shanghai lead is expected to rise in a volatile manner, with a volatility range of 16,700 - 17,200 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,300. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Trends: Domestic futures prices of Shanghai lead increased slightly compared to last week, foreign futures prices remained flat, and the price ratio decreased. As of August 28, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic trading) of LME 3 - month lead was $1938 per ton, the futures closing price of the active lead contract was 16,890 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.72 [6][10]. - Basis and Premiums: Domestic futures basis weakened, and foreign premiums weakened. As of August 28, 2025, the Chinese futures basis was - 140 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - $41.45 per ton [12][14]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Foreign lead inventories decreased, domestic inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased, with overall inventory remaining unchanged. As of August 28, 2025, the total lead inventory was 6.52 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 10,550 tons; and the number of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts was 58,151 tons, a decrease of 1,271 tons [29][33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply - Side - Primary Lead: The operating rate and production of primary lead enterprises increased, and a subsequent decline is expected. As of August 21, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major production areas was 77.66%, an increase of 4.41% from last week; the weekly production of primary lead was 37,500 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from last week [18][20]. - Supply - Side - Secondary Lead: The capacity utilization rate and production of secondary lead enterprises decreased. It is currently in the off - season, with few waste battery scrapings, and it is difficult for capacity to recover significantly. A recovery is expected next week. As of August 21, 2025, the domestic production of secondary lead in major production areas was 21,300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week; the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 47.42%, a decrease of 0.81% from the previous week [24][27]. - Supply - Side - Secondary Lead Enterprises Quantity: As of July 31, 2025, the total number of secondary lead production enterprises was 68, remaining unchanged [35][37]. - Supply - Side - Lead Trade: In July 2025, refined lead exports decreased significantly, while imports increased significantly. There was an arbitrage opportunity due to higher overseas lead ingot prices and low domestic processing fees. Refined lead exports were 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. Refined lead imports were 3,417 tons. The total lead ingot imports were 13,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,940 tons or 106.70%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9,730 tons or 41.98% [39][41]. - Demand - Side - Processing Fees: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged, while the imported ore processing fee decreased, with little impact on domestic production. As of August 28, 2025, the average national lead concentrate processing price was 540 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the imported lead concentrate (Pb60) processing fee TC was - $70 per thousand tons [43][45]. - Demand - Side - Automobile Sales: Automobile production and sales growth rates decreased, affecting lead demand. In July 2025, automobile sales were 2.593 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to July, cumulative automobile sales reached 18.269 million, a year - on - year increase of 12% [47][49]. - Demand - Side - Battery Prices: Battery prices remained flat, while the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) increased. As of August 28, 2025, the average price of waste lead 48V/20AH batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per set, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 19,870 yuan per ton [51][52].
沪铅市场周报：联储降息有望来临，沪铅需求有望增加-20250829
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-29 11:16