工业硅多晶硅市场周报：光伏会议限产存疑，双硅震荡等待消息-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices dropped by 4.06%, and polysilicon prices fell by 0.22%. Industrial silicon futures showed a unilateral downward trend, while polysilicon futures remained in high - level consolidation. [4] - For industrial silicon, supply is expected to increase, especially in Southwest China during the flood season. The overall demand from its three major downstream industries remains flat, and the industry inventory is still high. It is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend next week. [4] - For polysilicon, supply is increasing, while demand is weakening. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue to adjust and show a volatile trend. [4] - Operation suggestions: The main contract of industrial silicon should be traded in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. The main contract of polysilicon should be short - term volatile, with a trading range of 46000 - 53000 and a stop - loss range of 44000 - 55000. [4] Summary according to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: Industrial silicon futures declined unilaterally, and polysilicon futures were in high - level consolidation. [4] - Market Outlook: - Industrial Silicon: Supply will increase, especially in Southwest China. The demand from downstream industries remains flat, and the inventory is high, so it will be in a volatile downward trend. [4] - Polysilicon: Supply is rising, demand is falling, and the price will continue to adjust and show a volatile trend. [4] - Operation Suggestions: Provide trading ranges and stop - loss ranges for both industrial silicon and polysilicon main contracts. [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Price Changes: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined this week. Industrial silicon spot prices decreased, and the basis decreased. Polysilicon spot and futures prices were flat, and the basis strengthened. [5][10][14] - Industrial Silicon Production: As of August 28, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 83,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57.31%. [19] 3. Industry Situation - Cost and Price: The raw material cost of industrial silicon decreased, and the electricity price remained stable during the flood season, so the overall cost remained low. [21] - Warehouse Receipts: As of August 28, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 50,656 lots, a decrease of 510 lots from the previous week. [28] - Downstream Industry of Industrial Silicon: - Organic Silicon: The output and operating rate decreased this week. Due to cost reduction and profit recovery, the output is expected to be stable, and the demand for industrial silicon will remain unchanged. [30][37] - Aluminum Alloy: The spot price increased, and the inventory continued to rise. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to be negative. [43] - Polysilicon: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to increase slightly due to the increase in silicon wafer prices. [50] - Polysilicon Industry: - Cost and Profit: The cost decreased, the profit increased, and the output increased. The industry is gradually improving. [57] - Downstream Demand: The silicon wafer price increased, and the battery cell price remained flat. The demand for polysilicon is expected to increase slightly. [50]