贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are supported by a weakening US dollar index, an 87.2% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, mixed labor - market data, and Middle - East geopolitical tensions [3]. - Copper prices face upward pressure from the US dollar index and demand feedback at high prices, but are supported by increasing downstream acceptance, with a target support price of 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short - term due to dovish Fed signals and increasing downstream restocking, while alumina is expected to oscillate weakly due to supply surpluses [33]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with supply in a surplus state, stable demand, and potential risks of a short squeeze in LME inventories [62]. - The nickel industry shows stability in nickel ore, firmness in nickel iron, and an uncertain outlook for stainless steel and nickel sulfate, with attention on the September rate - cut expectation [77]. - Tin prices may rise due to falling social inventories and decent demand from solder enterprises [92]. - Carbonate lithium prices may have short - term rebound opportunities if there are supply disruptions, but the long - term supply - demand situation remains loose [103]. - Industrial silicon is in a wait - and - see state, with its开工 rate potentially peaking, and polysilicon requires attention to industry policies [111]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold: Supported by a low - interest - rate environment, geopolitical risks, and economic data, pushing up prices [3]. - Silver: No specific daily view provided, but multiple data charts on prices, spreads, and inventories are presented [4][6][11]. 3.2 Copper - Price Outlook: Short - term upward pressure and downward support coexist, with a target support price of 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - Market Data: Various copper futures and spot prices show daily increases, with different price changes in different contracts [16][19]. - Inventory and Spread: LME copper inventory increased by 1.19% to 157,950 tons, and the scrap - refined copper spread remained stable [15][31]. 3.3 Aluminum - Aluminum: Short - term upward - biased oscillation due to macro and demand factors [33]. - Alumina: Weak short - term oscillation due to supply surpluses, with a support range of 3000 - 3050 yuan per ton and a reference upper range of 3250 - 3300 yuan per ton [33]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Supported by tight scrap - aluminum supply and tax - policy changes, with a price spread of 400 - 500 yuan per ton from aluminum [34]. 3.4 Zinc - Supply and Demand: Supply is in a surplus state, demand is stable, and there is a potential short - squeeze risk in LME inventories [62]. - Price Movement: LME zinc prices rose by 0.73% to 2781 dollars per ton, while domestic zinc prices declined slightly [63]. 3.5 Nickel - Nickel Ore: Stable, with a possible slight decline in the Indonesian benchmark price in September [77]. - Nickel Iron: Relatively firm, with some large - scale transactions above 940 [77]. - Stainless Steel and Nickel Sulfate: Both show oscillating trends, with attention on the September - October peak season [77]. 3.6 Tin - Price Outlook: May rise due to falling social inventories and decent demand from solder enterprises [92]. - Market Data: Tin futures prices increased, with the Shanghai tin main contract rising 2.19% to 278,650 yuan per ton [93]. 3.7 Carbonate Lithium - Price Outlook: Short - term potential for price rebounds with supply disruptions, but long - term supply - demand remains loose [103]. - Market Data: Futures and spot prices declined, with the main carbonate lithium futures contract dropping 960 yuan to 77,180 yuan per ton [104][106]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - Market Outlook: Suggest a wait - and - see approach, with the开工 rate potentially peaking [111]. - Market Data: Spot and futures prices declined, with the industrial silicon main contract dropping 2.1% to 8390 yuan per ton [112][115].