大越期货贵金属周报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Last week, the market awaited the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. Gold and silver prices first declined and then rose. After Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech, the expectation of Fed rate cuts increased, and gold and silver prices rebounded significantly. This week, attention should be paid to economic data from the US and China, as well as the implementation of the US "reciprocal tariff" on India. In terms of positions, the net position of Shanghai gold decreased, while that of Shanghai silver slightly increased, and market sentiment cooled [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - Price Changes: Shanghai gold (2510) closed down 0.23%, COMEX gold closed up 1%, Shanghai silver (2510) closed down 0.17%, and COMEX silver closed up 2.13%. The US dollar index weakened slightly, closing down 0.12%, and the RMB appreciated, closing down 0.25% [4][13]. - Market Events: At the beginning of the week, the market reacted to the US - Russia talks with limited results. Trump and Zelensky met, and there were discussions about a potential tri - lateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. US technology stocks tumbled in the middle of the week, affecting global risk appetite. Powell's dovish speech on Friday led to an increase in the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Economic Data: The US July PCE, second - quarter GDP, and July durable goods orders data, China's August official PMI, and July industrial enterprise profit data are to be released this week. The US "reciprocal tariff" on India at 50% takes effect [13]. 2. Weekly Review - Market Sentiment: The market initially expected a hawkish stance from the central bank symposium but was surprised by a dovish one. After Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September and fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of the year [13][14]. - Geopolitical Events: Trump and Zelensky met, and discussions about a tri - lateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine took place. However, due to the territorial issue, Putin is unlikely to meet with Zelensky [13][15]. - Economic Indicators: The US July new home starts increased by 5.2% year - on - year, reaching 1.428 million units. The US August manufacturing PMI reached a three - year high, while the service PMI slightly declined. The eurozone's business activity reached a 15 - month high, and the German manufacturing sector showed strong recovery [15][16]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price Ratios: Graphs show the ratio of domestic and foreign gold and silver spot prices, the relationship between London gold and the US dollar index, London silver and the US dollar index, and the performance of various stock indices and precious metals [17][19][20]. - US Treasury Yields: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond oscillated and fell to 4.38% [24]. 4. Position Data - Shanghai Gold Positions: The net position of Shanghai gold decreased, with both long and short positions decreasing. As of August 19, the CFTC gold net position remained net long but decreased, with more long positions cut and short positions increased [13][27][31]. - Shanghai Silver Positions: The net position of Shanghai silver slightly increased, with both long and short positions decreasing. The CFTC silver net long position increased, with more long positions added and short positions cut [13][30][31]. - ETF Positions: The SPDR gold ETF position oscillated and slightly decreased, and the silver ETF position oscillated and decreased [34][36]. - Inventory Data: Shanghai gold inventory continued to increase significantly, COMEX gold inventory continued to increase, Shanghai silver inventory oscillated and decreased, and COMEX silver inventory slightly increased [38][39][41].