全球跨资产策略_摩根士丹利研究_关键预测

Investment Rating - The report maintains an equal-weight rating on equities, overweight in core fixed income, and underweight in other fixed income [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut the funds rate by 25 basis points in September, with further quarterly cuts anticipated, leading to a terminal rate of 2.75-3.0% by the end of 2026 [1][18]. - The report indicates a step down in global growth due to tariff impacts, with the US experiencing additional drag from immigration restrictions [7][8]. - US markets are viewed as unmatched in size and liquidity, but rising policy uncertainty may pressure the dollar as foreign investors increase FX-hedging ratios [3][12]. Economic Forecasts - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.6% for 2025 and 3.0% for 2026, with inflation expected to remain at 2.0% for both years [8]. - The US GDP growth is forecasted at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, with inflation rates of 2.9% and 2.5% respectively [8]. - The Euro area is expected to have GDP growth of 1.0% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, with inflation rates of 2.1% and 1.8% [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, a preference for quality cyclicals, large caps, and stocks with high operational efficiency is emphasized, while in Japan, focus is on domestic reflation and corporate reform beneficiaries [5][6]. - Key sectors in Europe recommended for overweight positions include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [5]. - Emerging markets are favored towards financials and profitability leaders, with a preference for domestic-focused businesses over exporters [5]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that risk assets are benefiting from "less bad" news, particularly for stocks previously priced for worst-case scenarios, while Treasuries are rallying on anticipated Fed cuts [2][3]. - The oil market is expected to return to a sizeable surplus, likely driving Brent prices down but not below $60 per barrel [14]. - European gas and global LNG prices are currently range-bound, with potential supply risks in September that could tighten balances [15].