PTA、MEG早报-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, last week the PTA market followed the cost - end trend, rising and then falling. The effect of PTA device maintenance was less than expected, the liquidity in the spot market was okay, the spot basis weakened, and the processing margin, although slightly improved from the low point, remained at a relatively low level. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. - For MEG, last week the arrival volume of ethylene glycol was scarce. It is expected that the visible inventory will drop below 450,000 tons early next week, and the arrival volume in early September will remain moderately low. In terms of demand, the polyester load this week rebounded to around 90.3%, and it is expected that the average load in September will reach 91.5%, with improved rigid - demand support. Recently, the commodity market has corrected, and the MEG market has been under pressure. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate within a range in the short term, with strong support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to device changes and polyester load [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - There is no information provided regarding the previous day's review in the given content. 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: On Friday, a small number of polyester factories made bids. Transactions for next - week's goods were around a discount of 32 - 37 to the 01 contract, and for mid - and late - September goods, at a discount of 30 - 38 to the 01 contract, with individual prices slightly lower. The price negotiation range was around 4,720 - 4,760. The mainstream spot basis today was 01 - 35, showing a neutral situation [5]. - Basis: The spot price was 4,740, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 44, indicating that the futures price was higher than the spot price, a neutral situation [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory was 3.81 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 days, which is a bearish factor [5]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, a bullish sign [5]. - Main Force Position: The net position was short, and the short position decreased, a bearish factor [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and the trading volume in the market was average. The price of ethylene glycol had limited fluctuations during the day, and the buying interest from traders was average. Spot transactions were around a premium of 60 - 68 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and today's spot transaction prices were relatively low. In the US - dollar market, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and recent cargo negotiations were around 534 - 536 US dollars/ton. The market negotiation was weak, and buyers were cautious [6]. - Basis: The spot price was 4,534, and the basis of the 01 contract was 68, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price, a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 406,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 94,200 tons, a bullish factor [7]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, a bullish sign [7]. - Main Force Position: The main force's net position was short, and the short position decreased, a bearish factor [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Positive Factors: In August, some PTA devices were planned for maintenance, which improved the supply - demand outlook. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has shown some expectations for the start of demand. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 - million - ton device had an unplanned shutdown [10]. - Negative Factors: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continued to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remained cautious. In the short term, the commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and for the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]. 4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of PTA over time [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory changes of ethylene glycol [12]. - Price Data: It includes the spot prices of naphtha, paraxylene, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, as well as futures prices and basis data. It also shows the processing margins and profits of PTA and MEG [13].