沪锌期货早报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2510) are expected to oscillate and weaken. The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures move in an oscillating pattern, with a shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions increased in the open interest, with the short - side increasing more significantly. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing the support of the moving averages. The short - term KDJ indicator declined and operated in the weak zone, while the trend indicator showed that the long - side strength decreased and the short - side strength increased, with the short - side advantage expanding [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, the global zinc sheet production was 1153,000 tons, with a consumption of 1,130,200 tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, the global zinc sheet production was 4,451,400 tons, and the consumption was 4,507,900 tons, leading to a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, the global zinc ore production was 4,040,600 tons [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,030, and the basis was - 110, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On August 29, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 56,500 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,920 tons to 37,957 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation. The LME inventory warrants continued to decrease, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants remained at a high level [2][6][7]. 3.4 Market Trends - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, presenting a bearish signal [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main positions were net long, but the long positions decreased, indicating a bullish tendency [2]. 3.6 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (August 29) - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on August 29 totaled 217,677 lots, with a total trading value of 2,405,013,200 yuan. The open interest was 223,691 lots, an increase of 6,874 lots [3]. 3.7 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (August 29) - The prices of various zinc - related products such as zinc concentrates, zinc ingots, galvanized sheets, galvanized pipes, zinc alloys, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and zinc sub - oxide in the domestic market on August 29 showed different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 18 - 28) - From August 18 to 28, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in the main Chinese markets increased from 115,000 tons to 129,800 tons. Compared with August 21, it increased by 12,400 tons, and compared with August 25, it increased by 5,000 tons [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (August 29) - The total zinc warrants on the futures exchange on August 29 were 37,957 tons, an increase of 1,920 tons compared to the previous day. The warrants in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Tianjin had different changes [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution (August 29) - The LME zinc inventory on August 29 was 56,500 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warrants were 43,500 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 13,000 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 23.01% [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (August 29) - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrates in main cities across the country on August 29 were mostly 16,760 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [8]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (August 29) - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc. on August 29 all decreased by 120 yuan/ton [12]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned refined zinc production was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (August 29) - The zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions on August 29 varied. For example, the processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrates in some regions ranged from 3,400 - 4,100 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrates was 80 - 100 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (August 29) - In the trading and position ranking of zinc futures contracts (zn2510) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 29, the total trading volume of member futures companies was 223,151 lots, a decrease of 16,175 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position open interest was 76,054 lots, an increase of 2,006 lots, and the total short - position open interest was 80,980 lots, an increase of 2,848 lots [17].