大越期货纯碱早报-20250901

Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1311 yuan/ton to 1296 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.14%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1205 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 106 yuan/ton to - 91 yuan/ton, a change of - 14.15% [6]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1205 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 82.47%, showing a seasonal decline. The weekly output is 71.91 tons, including 38.32 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with planned new capacities of 640, 180, and 750 tons respectively. The actual new capacity in 2025 is 100 tons [22]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate is 75.49% and stable [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production continues to decline significantly [34]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 186.75 tons, a decrease of 2.27% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [37]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash [38]. 6. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The peak summer maintenance period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash. The positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5].