大越期货沪铜早报-20250901

Report Core View - Copper's fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policies being relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in August rising to 49.4% [2] - The basis shows a neutral situation with the spot price at 79355 and a basis of -55, indicating a discount to the futures [2] - Copper inventories on August 29 increased by 950 to 158900 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 1950 tons from last week to 79748 tons, considered neutral [2] - The copper price closed above the 20-day moving average with the 20-day moving average moving upward, showing a bullish signal [2] - The main positions are net long and increasing, also a bullish indication [2] - Currently, copper prices are expected to move in a range as inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the market awaits consumption guidance in the September peak season, with no prominent long - short contradictions [2] Market Situation Analysis - In terms of recent factors, domestic policy easing is a positive factor, while the escalation of the trade war is a negative one [3] - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table reveals production, import, export, and consumption data from 2018 - 2024, with a supply - demand balance of 110,000 tons in 2024 [22] Market Conditions - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14] - Processing fees have declined [16]