棉花早报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market presents a neutral fundamental situation. Different institutions' reports show varying data on production, consumption, and inventory for the 2025/26 cotton season. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. The night - trading of Zhengzhou cotton's main 01 contract oscillated and declined, with intense competition between bulls and bears on the market. There are significant differences in the market's expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the market will continue to oscillate around 14,000 [4]. - Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and an enhanced expectation for the consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [5]. - Negative factors involve the postponement of trade negotiations, relatively high current export tariffs to the US, a general decline in foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided in the given content. 3.2 Daily Hints - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different data on the 2025/26 cotton season. ICAC's August report shows a global production of 25.90 million tons and consumption of 25.60 million tons. USDA's August report shows a production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons. China's Customs data shows that textile and clothing exports in July were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In July, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. China's Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,336 yuan, with a basis of 1,196 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: China's Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season shows an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish signal [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, with a net long - position increase, but the main trend is unclear, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Expectation: The night - trading of Zhengzhou cotton's main 01 contract oscillated and declined, with intense competition between bulls and bears on the market. There are significant differences in the market's expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the market will continue to oscillate around 14,000 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: The total global cotton production in August 2024/25 is 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The total consumption is 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory is 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 747,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [9][10]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: For the 2025/26 season, the global production is 25.90 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%); the consumption is 25.60 million tons, basically flat year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - China's Ministry of Agriculture's Cotton Forecast: For the 2025/26 season, the production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [13]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the given content.