焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-1）-20250901

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For焦煤: With a major event approaching, coal mines are cautious in production, and many have shut down recently. After previous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end is not significant, and most quotations remain stable. However, as the coke price increase has not been implemented, market sentiment is turning cautious, and procurement is slow. The overall market procurement sentiment is cautious, and the acceptance of high - priced raw materials is low. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price may remain stable [2]. - For焦炭: As the parade approaches, coke enterprises in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan have implemented production restrictions, which restricts regional supply. But other regions have increased production due to profit recovery. Overall, the coke supply is in a tight balance. Although steel mills' profit is okay, steel inventory is accumulating, and steel mills are reducing production, leading to weakening demand for coke. It is expected that the short - term coke price may be stable with a slight upward trend [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - 焦煤 - Fundamentals: With a major event approaching, coal mines are cautious in production, and many have shut down. After previous inventory reduction, inventory pressure is not significant, but the coke price increase has not been implemented, so market sentiment is cautious, and procurement is slow, with some coal prices still having room to fall; bullish [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1170, and the basis is - 19, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 805.8 million tons, port inventory is 255.5 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 829.4 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; neutral [2]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented. Although coke production per ton remains profitable, some coke enterprises have started to limit production, steel mill overhauls have increased significantly, iron - water production has decreased, and market procurement sentiment is cautious. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price may remain stable [2]. - 焦炭 - Fundamentals: As the parade approaches, coke enterprises in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan have implemented production restrictions, which restricts regional supply. But other regions have increased production due to profit recovery. Overall, the coke supply is in a tight balance; bullish [6]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1630, and the basis is - 13, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; bearish [6]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 609.8 million tons, port inventory is 215.1 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 39.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week; bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; neutral [6]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [6]. - Expectation: Some coke enterprises are restricted by environmental protection production restrictions, and production is still disrupted, with low in - factory inventory. Although steel mills' profit is okay, steel inventory is accumulating, and steel mills are reducing production, leading to weakening demand for coke. It is expected that the short - term coke price may be stable with a slight upward trend [6]. Price - The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on August 29th (17:30), including prices at different ports for various coal types such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, and fat coal [10]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [20]. - Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory: Independent coke enterprise coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [25]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [30]. Other Data - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [43]. - Average Coke Profit per Ton: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [47].