大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250901

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 1, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral, with expected oscillatory trends for both today [4][8] - The main influencing factors include cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, while major risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [7][10] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a 7.2% year - on - year increase. A reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned. The demand for agricultural films has slightly recovered but is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has increased. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7270 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -17, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.2%, which is neutral [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), which is neutral [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4] - Main Position: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract disk oscillates. The demand for agricultural films recovers but is still weak, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will oscillate today [4] - Factors: Positive factors include cost support and anti - involution policies; negative factors include weak demand [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in macro - data. There is new PP production capacity, and downstream demand in industries such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7000 (0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 26, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [8] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), which is neutral [8] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [8] - Main Position: The main position of PP is net long, turning long, showing a bullish signal [8] - Expectation: The PP main contract disk oscillates. With new production capacity and improved downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will oscillate today [8] - Factors: Positive factors include cost support and anti - involution policies; negative factors include weak demand [9] Data Tables - Spot and Futures Market Data: Provides price and price change data for LLDPE and PP in the spot and futures markets, as well as inventory data [11] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Presents historical supply - demand balance data for polyethylene and polypropylene from 2018 - 2024, including capacity, production, net imports, etc., and expected capacity data for 2025 [16][18] - Charts: Displays multiple charts related to polyolefins, such as price - basis charts, inventory charts, production cash - flow charts, and internal - external price difference charts [12][14][19]