大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices showed strong performance with average trading volume. Although there was some replenishment of imported supplies, overall supply remained tight. In the industrial chain, ore prices remained stable, while ferronickel prices increased steadily, keeping the cost line firm. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly, and it is expected that the "Golden September and Silver October" period will boost consumption and reduce inventory. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased year - on - year, limiting overall demand growth. The medium - to - long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will oscillate in a narrow range with cost support at the bottom. The main contract of stainless steel will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint: Nickel prices were strong this week with average trading. Overall supply was tight despite some imported supplies. Ore prices were stable, ferronickel prices rose, and stainless steel inventory decreased. New energy vehicle data was good, but ternary battery installed capacity declined year - on - year. The long - term oversupply persists [8]. - Operation Strategies: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will oscillate in a narrow range with cost support. The main contract of stainless steel will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - Red soil nickel ore prices remained unchanged. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 0.92%, while the plating - grade remained the same. Low - grade ferronickel prices were flat, and high - grade ferronickel prices increased by 1.07%. Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price all increased. The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 0.18% [13][14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Nickel ore prices and freight rates remained the same as last week. As of August 28, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports was 12.5982 million wet tons, a 4.48% increase. In July 2025, nickel ore imports were 5.0058 million tons, a 15.16% increase month - on - month and 43.63% year - on - year. Ore prices were stable, and the supply from Indonesia was sufficient [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices were strong with average spot trading. Although there was some arrival of imported nickel, overall supply was still tight. In the long - term, supply and demand will both increase, but the oversupply situation will not change. In July 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, a 4.74% increase month - on - month and 24.57% year - on - year. In July 2025, imports were 38,164.223 tons, a 124.36% increase month - on - month and 798.94% year - on - year. Exports were 15,545.572 tons, a 53.27% increase month - on - month and 3.43% year - on - year. LME and SHFE inventories decreased [22][26][40]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - Ferronickel prices increased steadily. In July 2025, China's ferronickel production was 22,900 tons of metal, a 1.69% decrease month - on - month and 10.63% year - on - year. In July 2025, imports were 836,000 tons, a 19.7% decrease month - on - month and 1.8% increase year - on - year. The inventory in July was 224,800 physical tons, equivalent to 21,800 tons of nickel [44][47][50]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 25 yuan/ton this week. In July, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2108 million tons, with the 300 - series production decreasing by 2.63% month - on - month. Imports were 73,000 tons, and exports were 416,300 tons. As of August 29, the national inventory was 1.083 million tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons [57][62][68]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In July 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million units respectively, a 26.3% and 27.4% increase year - on - year. From January to July 2025, production and sales were 8.232 million and 8.22 million units respectively, a 39.2% and 38.5% increase year - on - year. In July, the production of power and other batteries was 133.8 GWh, a 3.6% increase month - on - month and 44.3% year - on - year. The installed capacity of power batteries was 55.9 GWh, a 4.0% decrease month - on - month and 34.3% year - on - year [73][74][78]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, prices fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average, with a decrease in positions and a reduction in short - selling pressure. The MACD showed a golden cross buy signal, and the KDJ was in an upward trend. Prices were still oscillating in a small range [81]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Combing Summary - The impact of different sectors on nickel prices: nickel ore was neutral; ferronickel was neutral; refined nickel was slightly bearish; stainless steel was neutral; and new energy was neutral [84]. - Unilateral trading strategies: the main contract of Shanghai nickel will oscillate in a narrow range with cost support, and the main contract of stainless steel will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [86][87].