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大越期货沪铜周报-20250901
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-01 02:23
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract of Shanghai copper rising 0.91% to close at 79,410 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors disturbed copper prices, and there were still global instability factors. In China, consumption is entering the peak season, but the downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading is average, mainly for rigid - demand transactions. The LME copper inventory was 158,900 tons with little change last week, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,950 tons to 79,748 tons compared with last week. The supply - demand situation is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025 [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 0.91% to close at 79,410 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices. In China, downstream consumption willingness is average, and domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid - demand. The LME copper inventory was 158,900 tons with little change, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,950 tons to 79,748 tons [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 PMI - Not provided in detail in the given content 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, such as a supply surplus of 10,000 tons in 2018 and a supply shortage of 10,000 tons in 2023 [11][14]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and the bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees are at a low level [21]. 3.3.2 CFTC Position - CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [23]. 3.3.3 Spot - Futures Spread - Not provided in detail in the given content 3.3.4 Import Profit - Not provided in detail in the given content 3.3.5 Warehouse Receipts - Not provided in detail in the given content