建信期货股指日评-20250901

Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: September 1, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Market Performance Market Review - On August 29, the Wind All A index opened with an upward trend, then reversed and declined, and rebounded again at the end of the session, closing up 0.37% with over 60% of stocks falling. The CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 closed up 0.74%, 0.53%, and 0.47% respectively, while the CSI 1000 closed down 0.11%. The performance of index futures was generally stronger than that of the spot market, with the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM closing up 1.03%, 0.68%, 0.43%, and 0.05% respectively [6]. Market Outlook - External markets: On August 25, Trump stated that China must ensure the supply of rare - earth magnets to the US, or face a 200% tariff, which increased market risk - aversion sentiment. - Domestic situation: The domestic economy is in a weak recovery stage. In July, economic data showed a decline in both supply and demand. From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% with a narrowing decline of 0.1 percentage points. The overall fundamentals are still under pressure, but market expectations for future economic recovery are positive due to policy support. - Regulatory aspect: Many banks announced strict control of illegal credit funds entering the market, and Guojin Securities raised the margin ratio for margin trading of underlying securities (excluding those on the Beijing Stock Exchange) to 100% on August 26, which cooled market sentiment. - Capital flow: The balance of margin trading has continuously reached new highs, and it is only about 30 billion yuan away from the historical high. There are signs of household deposits flowing into the market, and its sustainability needs to be observed. - Overall view: The US tariff statement and increased regulatory efforts have increased the pressure for the Shanghai Composite Index to break through 3,900. However, the market sentiment remains high, and there is still room for further capital inflow. Long positions can be held, and the trading volume and corporate semi - annual reports need to be monitored. In terms of market style, during market fluctuations, large - cap blue - chip stocks may be more favored by funds, and the CSI 300 and SSE 50 may be more dominant in the short term [7][8]. Industry News - On August 29, the Ministry of Finance released the economic operation of state - owned and state - holding enterprises from January to July 2025. From January to July, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 4,731.109 trillion yuan, the same as the previous year. The total profit was 2,478.64 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. The tax payable was 3,469.46 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. At the end of July, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.1%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points [29].