尿素产业链周报-20250901

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View High inventory and increased supply suppress the price, but the Indian tender expectation and cost support limit a significant decline. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Points - India's NFL launched a new tender for 2 million tons (bid closing on September 2nd), and the potential export demand boosts market confidence, with short - term sentiment being positive [4]. - The price of thermal coal is rising steadily, the loss of the fixed - bed process is expanding, and the cost support is strengthening marginally [4]. - The total inventory of urea enterprises continues to increase, reaching the peak in the same period in the past five years, which restricts the upside [4]. - The weekly output is increasing, and new production capacity is planned to be released from August to September, so the supply pressure remains [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - Inventory: The total inventory of urea enterprises continues to increase, reaching the peak in the same period in the past five years [4]. There are also data on China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, etc. [7][8] - Futures and Spot Price: Data on urea futures main - contract trading volume, open interest, warehouse receipts, as well as spot prices in Henan and Shandong, and related basis and price differences are presented [10][15][19] - Production Cost and Profit: Data on the production cost and profit of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural gas, and water - coal slurry gasification methods are provided [27][29] - Production - related Data: Information on production enterprise's backlog order days, capacity utilization rate, total daily output, and new production capacity plan is included [32][34] - Compound Fertilizer: Data on compound fertilizer's capacity utilization rate, inventory, production cost, and production gross profit are provided [39] - External Market and Cost - related: Data on the FOB prices of urea in the Middle East and China, as well as thermal coal spot prices and port inventory are presented [43][44][47]