芳烃橡胶早报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, focus on opportunities to expand processing fees on dips and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [3]. - For MEG, in the short - term, EG port inventories are expected to decline. The situation is good and the benefits are not low. The far - month is expected to accumulate inventories with the return of maintenance and new device production, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it should be regarded as a wide - range shock. Pay attention to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, after the finished product inventory of polyester yarn accumulates, the speed of increasing load may slow down. The staple fiber is expected to maintain a high start - up rate with acceptable spot benefits, and the processing fee should be regarded as oscillatory [4]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low absolute level, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PTA - Price and Transaction: PTA spot daily average transaction basis is 2509(-2) [3]. - Device Changes: Sanfangxiang's 1.2 million - ton device is under maintenance, and Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device is under maintenance [3]. - Market Situation: After the recent TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased month - on - month. Polyester load was basically stable, inventory decreased significantly, basis weakened month - on - month, and spot processing fee weakened. PX domestic start - up decreased slightly, overseas devices ran smoothly, PXN weakened month - on - month, disproportionation benefits improved while isomerization benefits weakened slightly, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remained [4]. - Future Outlook: TA accidental maintenance increases, polyester start - up continues to rise and the inventory is relatively healthy, so the load is expected to be maintained. The supply of raw material PX will gradually return, and the near - end supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to continue to improve [4]. MEG - Price and Transaction: MEG spot basis is around (+64) to 01 [4]. - Device Changes: Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device restarted, and Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device is under maintenance [4]. - Market Situation: Recently, the domestic oil - based production capacity increased, the coal - based start - up rate decreased slightly, the overall load increased, overseas accidental maintenance increased, port inventory continued to decline due to low arrivals and stable shipments during the week, downstream stocking levels increased, basis strengthened month - on - month, and the benefit ratio remained [4]. - Future Outlook: In the short term, due to few arrivals, EG port inventory is expected to continue to decline. The situation is good and the benefits are not low. In the far - month, with the return of maintenance and new device production, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it should be regarded as a wide - range shock. Pay attention to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Production: The load of polyester staple fiber remained stable at 92%, and the load of recycled cotton - type was 51%. The short - fiber profit and pure - polyester yarn profit changed, and the differences between cotton - polyester staple and viscose - polyester staple also changed [4]. - Market Situation: The start - up of polyester yarn was stable, raw material stocking decreased, and finished product inventory increased. The benefits were weak [4]. - Future Outlook: After the finished product inventory of polyester yarn accumulates, the speed of increasing load may slow down. The staple fiber is expected to maintain a high start - up rate with acceptable spot benefits, and the processing fee should be regarded as oscillatory [4]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price Changes: Prices of various types of rubber such as US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, Thai mixed rubber, etc. changed. The weekly changes of some varieties were significant, such as a 35 - unit increase in US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber [4]. - Market Indicators: Indicators such as the spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract, US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber and NR main contract changed, and the warehouse receipts of RU on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [4]. - Main Contradictions: The national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low absolute level, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber is stable with rainfall affecting tapping [4]. - Strategy: Wait and see [4]. Styrene - Price Changes: Prices of raw materials such as ethylene, pure benzene, and product prices of styrene, EPS, etc. decreased. For example, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased from 751 on August 25 to 742 on August 29 [7]. - Profit Changes: The domestic profit of styrene, EPS, PS, etc. changed. The domestic profit of EPS decreased by 20 units on August 29 compared with August 25 [7].