Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it will enter a pattern of strong oscillation, affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal is oscillating and rebounding, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season in the short term, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still variables in China - Canada trade negotiations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good outlook. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, and the geopolitical conflict still has the potential to rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Spread: From August 20th to 29th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, with the 2601 contract showing a weak oscillation. Rapeseed meal futures oscillated and declined, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expanded [13][17][19]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory was 21,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.65% compared to last week's 25,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 25% compared to last year's 28,000 tons. The inventory of imported rapeseed at oil mills rebounded from a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly. The rapeseed crushing volume at oil mills decreased slightly [9][24][26]. - Production and Price of Aquatic Products: The production and price of aquatic products showed different trends. Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [9].
大越期货菜粕早报-20250901
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-01 05:00