大越期货生猪期货早报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is expected to increase for both pigs and pork this week as the domestic market enters the peak season before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, with more pigs being sent to the market. Demand is affected by the pessimistic macro - environment and high - temperature weather, but the tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. The market is likely to see a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and pig prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms at the end of the month and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. - The basis of the 2511 contract is - 5 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, presenting a neutral situation [10]. - As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% increase from the previous month and a 2.2% increase year - on - year. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% increase from the previous month and a 4.2% increase year - on - year, showing a bearish trend [10]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, indicating a bearish trend [10]. - The net long position of the main contract is held, but the long position is decreasing, suggesting a bullish trend [10]. - In the near term, both supply and demand of pigs are rising. Pig prices are expected to bottom out and then maintain a range - bound pattern this week, with the LH2511 contract oscillating in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week. The market may see a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and pig prices are likely to remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms at the end of the month and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market. The LH2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. As the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approach, the supply and demand of pigs are both increasing, and the spot price has returned to a volatile pattern, with the futures following a range - bound pattern [12]. - High - temperature weather has led to a short - term decline in pork demand. The spot price of pigs is oscillating weakly due to increased supply, but the decline may be limited as demand gradually recovers [12]. - The profit of domestic pig farming remains at a low level, and the short - term profit has worsened. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is good in the short term, and the situation of both supply and demand increasing supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [12]. - The spot price of pigs may oscillate strongly before the National Day, and the futures will generally return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic pig consumption has entered the peak season before the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [13]. - Bearish factors: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures and spot prices: A table shows the prices of different pig futures contracts and the spot prices of outer - ternary pigs in different regions from August 21 to August 29 [14]. - Supply - side data: - Pig inventory: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a 5.9% decrease from the previous month and a 5.2% decrease year - on - year. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a 0.2% increase from the previous month and a 6.2% decrease year - on - year. As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% increase from the previous month and a 2.2% increase year - on - year. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% increase from the previous month and a 4.2% increase year - on - year [10][28]. - Piglet indicators: Diagrams show the average prices of binary sows, 7kg piglets, and culled sows, as well as the feed - to - meat ratio and survival rate of piglets [23][25]. - Scale - farm inventory: Diagrams show the inventory trends of commodity pigs in different weight ranges in scale farms [29][31]. - Pork imports: A diagram shows the monthly pork import trends [33]. - Fattening cost: A diagram shows the fattening cost trends (taking 100 - 120kg as an example) [36]. - Feed profit expectation: A diagram shows the weekly profit expectation of pig feed [39]. - Slaughter: Diagrams show the monthly pig slaughter volume trends and the weekly average slaughter weight trends [42]. - Slaughter profit: Diagrams show the weekly pig slaughter profit trends, the weekly profit trends of self - breeding and self - fattening and purchasing piglets, and the price differences between pigs and other meats [43][45][48]. - Slaughter - end data: - Prices: Diagrams show the trends of the average price of white - striped pigs, the price difference between live pigs and white - striped pigs, the slaughter settlement price, and the average price in 36 cities [50][52]. - Slaughter profit: A diagram shows the weekly slaughter processing profit trends [54]. - Demand slaughter: Diagrams show the daily pig slaughter volume and the opening rate, the weekly fresh - meat sales rate and frozen - product inventory rate of slaughtering enterprises [56][58]. - Demand - side data: - Consumption trend: A diagram shows the annual total pork consumption trend, and the annual pig consumption has increased month - on - month, indicating a recovery in pork consumption preference due to price advantages [60][62]. - Pig - grain ratio: A diagram shows the pig - grain ratio trends [63]. - Reserve operations: - Reserve purchase and sale: Diagrams show the historical trends of pig price increases and decreases, the pig reserve purchase situation from 2019 - 2024, and the pig reserve release situation from 2019 - 2024 [67][69][71]. 3.5 Position Data - The net long position of the main contract is held, but the long position is decreasing, suggesting a bullish trend [10].