大越期货钢矿周报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the trends of steel and ore diverged, with rebar and hot-rolled coils being weak, while iron ore was relatively strong [68]. - The marginal effects of news such as capacity reduction and military parade began to decline, weakening the price support, and the market focus returned to fundamentals [68]. - The weekly apparent demand for rebar continued to rise slightly, but the off - season demand remained weak, and social inventories continued to increase, putting pressure on the later - stage fundamentals. The situation of hot - rolled coils was relatively better, with demand expected to improve, but it was dragged down by rebar [68]. - Although the molten iron output decreased slightly, it remained at a high level. The domestic inventory decreased month - on - month, and combined with the firm raw material prices, it supported the iron ore price [68]. - The market will enter the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" later, and whether the demand can pick up is the focus of attention. Technically, the price shows a bearish trend, and short - term short - side operations are recommended, but attention should be paid to the sudden intraday violent price fluctuations caused by the sentiment of capacity reduction [68]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 3.1.1 One - week Data Changes | Project | Change | | --- | --- | | PB powder price (yuan/wet ton) | Increased from 767 to 779, up 12 [6] | | Bahun powder price (yuan/wet ton) | Increased from 810 to 816, up 6 [6] | | PB powder spot landing profit (yuan/wet ton) | Decreased from - 6.77 to - 11.35, down 4.58 [6] | | Bahun powder spot landing profit (yuan/wet ton) | Decreased from 13.39 to - 2.61, down 16 [6] | | Australia's shipment volume to China (10,000 tons) | Increased from 1347.5 to 1658.2, up 310.7 [6] | | Brazil's shipment volume to China (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 1065.5 to 811.7, down 253.8 [6] | | Imported iron ore port inventory (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 14444.2 to 14388.02, down 56.18 [6] | | Imported iron ore arrival volume (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 2703.1 to 2462.3, down 240.8 [6] | | Imported iron ore port clearance volume (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 341.04 to 334.14, down 6.9 [6] | | Iron ore port trading volume (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 81.9 to 60.9, down 21 [6] | | Average daily molten iron output (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 240.75 to 240.13, down 0.62 [6] | | Steel enterprise profitability rate (%) | Decreased from 64.94 to 63.64, down 1.3 [6] | 3.1.2 Other Aspects Including iron ore port spot price, iron ore futures - spot basis, iron ore import profit, iron ore shipment volume, iron ore port inventory and steel mill inventory, iron ore arrival volume and port clearance volume, steel enterprise production situation, iron ore port average daily trading volume and steel mill average daily molten iron, but no specific analysis content is provided other than data [8][13][16] 3.2 Market Status Analysis 3.2.1 One - week Data Changes | Project | Change | | --- | --- | | Shanghai rebar price (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 3280 to 3270, down 10 [37] | | Shanghai hot - rolled coil price (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 3400 to 3380, down 20 [37] | | Blast furnace operating rate (%) | Decreased from 83.36 to 83.2, down 0.16 [37] | | Electric furnace operating rate (%) | Decreased from 75.69 to 75.1, down 0.59 [37] | | Rebar blast furnace profit (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 67 to 33, down 34 [37] | | Hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 95 to 66, down 29 [37] | | Rebar electric furnace profit (yuan/ton) | Decreased from - 93 to - 124, down 31 [37] | | Rebar weekly output (10,000 tons) | Increased from 214.65 to 220.56, up 5.91 [37] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly output (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 325.24 to 324.74, down 0.5 [37] | | Rebar weekly social inventory (10,000 tons) | Increased from 432.51 to 453.77, up 21.26 [39] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory (10,000 tons) | Increased from 282.55 to 285.78, up 3.23 [39] | | Rebar weekly enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 174.53 to 169.62, down 4.91 [39] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | Increased from 78.89 to 79.68, up 0.79 [39] | | Rebar weekly apparent consumption (10,000 tons) | Increased from 194.8 to 204.21, up 9.41 [39] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption (10,000 tons) | Increased from 318.18 to 321.71, up 3.53 [39] | | Building material trading volume (tons) | Decreased from 93906 to 83808, down 10098 [39] | 3.2.2 Other Aspects Including the summary price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, rebar and hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai, but no specific analysis content is provided other than data [42][44] 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - It includes aspects such as blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, rebar and hot - rolled coil actual production, steel profits, rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory, building material trading volume, apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, steel exports, real estate development investment and sales data, and manufacturing PMI. However, no specific analysis content is provided other than data [46][49][53]