大越期货玻璃周报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market fundamentals remain weak, with short - term expectations of a mainly weak and oscillatory trend. The supply has declined to a relatively low level, and there has been a phased reduction in the glass factory's inventory due to downstream replenishment, but the sustainability of this inventory reduction is uncertain, and it is expected that the glass will mainly have a wide - range oscillatory movement [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Glass Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The glass futures showed an oscillatory trend last week. The closing price of the main contract FG2601 increased by 0.77% to 1182 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The spot price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1060 yuan/ton, a 1.12% decrease from the previous week. The main contract basis was - 122 yuan/ton, a 20.79% increase [2][8][13]. 3.2 Factors Affecting the Glass Market 3.2.1 Positive Factors - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there are expectations of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [5]. 3.2.2 Negative Factors - The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly consuming their original inventory. The market sentiment of the "anti - involution" has faded [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 224, with an operating rate of 75.49% and a daily melting volume of 159,600 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The supply has stabilized at a historical low [3]. 3.3.2 Demand - The orders of downstream processing plants remain at a weak level, with no obvious improvement. They mainly purchase based on rigid demand and have no intention to stock up due to the continuous decline in the price of raw glass. As of August 28, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 62.566 million weight boxes, a 1.64% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory continued to accumulate [3]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.566 million weight boxes, a 1.64% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [43]. 3.3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [44].