原油成品油早报-20250901

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the absolute price declined on Friday. At the end of the peak refinery operation season in summer, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The contango of Brent and WTI crude oil strengthened slightly, while that of Dubai crude oil strengthened significantly. The refining margins of European and American refineries declined slightly, the gasoline crack spread in the United States strengthened, and the diesel crack spread in Europe fluctuated. The balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories have slightly increased, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have decreased seasonally, the absolute inventory is at a historically low level in the same period, Cushing inventories have decreased, and U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories have decreased. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil contango is expected to face pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the transition between peak and off - peak seasons. The market focuses on the medium - to - long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $60 per barrel. Due to the expected adjustment of European autumn maintenance, the forecast of the European diesel crack spread in the fourth quarter is raised [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From August 25 - 29, 2025, WTI crude oil decreased by $0.59, BRENT decreased by $1.14, and DUBAI increased by $0.01. Among other related indicators, SC increased by 3.50, OMAN decreased by 0.83, etc. [3] 2. Daily News - The CEO of a Russian oil company expects the global oil market surplus to be 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and drop to 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [3]. - Hedge funds have significantly reduced their bullish bets on crude oil to the lowest level since 2007 due to concerns about supply surplus. As of the week ending August 26, fund managers reduced their net long bets on WTI crude oil by 5,461 lots to 24,225 lots, the lowest since January 2007, and short - only bets on WTI crude oil reached a 20 - month high [3]. - The U.S. Federal offshore Gulf of Mexico crude oil production reached 1.92 million barrels per day in June 2025, the highest since October 2023 [4]. - Due to increased production from major oil - producing countries and U.S. tariff threats, it is difficult for oil prices to rise significantly this year. The predicted average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is $67.65 per barrel, and that of U.S. crude oil is $64.65 per barrel [4]. - Despite sanctions and U.S. tariffs, Russia's oil exports to India will increase by 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day in September [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending August 15, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day [5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%. U.S. crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries decreased slightly, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5][6].