甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, imports are high, and inland supply is expected to return. As traditional demand enters the peak season, attention should be paid to whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [1]. - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral, 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, external markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable, import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the commissioning of new devices in 2025 [7]. - For polypropylene, upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard spreads are neutral, import profit is around -700, and exports have been good this year. PDH profit is around -400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, supply pressure can be alleviated [7]. - For PVC, the basis is maintained at 01 - 270, downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, and static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly. Cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral [7]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From August 25 - 29, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801, Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2302 to 2222, and other regional prices also showed certain changes. Import profit remained at 322, and the daily change of盘面MTO profit was 0 [1]. - Analysis: Port inventory accumulation is obvious, imports are high, and inland supply is expected to return. Traditional demand will enter the peak season later, and attention should be paid to the relationship between supply and demand and inventory changes [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From August 25 - 29, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 840 (except for a slight increase on August 27), and prices of various regions in China and related indicators such as import profit, basis, and inventory also changed. The主力期货 price dropped by 71 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - Analysis: Overall inventory is neutral, external markets are stable, import profit has no further increase, non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, and LD is weakening. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion, US quotations, and new device commissioning [7]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From August 25 - 29, 2025, prices of raw materials such as Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene, and prices of various regions in China and related indicators such as export profit, basis, and inventory all changed. The主力期货 price dropped by 46 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - Analysis: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is -60, non - standard spreads are neutral, imports are at a loss, and exports are good. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. Supply pressure can be alleviated under certain conditions [7]. PVC - Price Data: From August 25 - 29, 2025, prices of raw materials such as Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda, and prices of different production methods in various regions and related indicators such as export profit, comprehensive profit, and basis all changed. The price of电石 - based PVC in East China dropped by 20 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - Analysis: The basis is maintained at a certain level, downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, and attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, as well as cost, downstream performance, and the macro situation [7].