大越期货原油周报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices oscillated last week. WTI crude futures closed at $64.01 per barrel, up 0.38% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $67.46 per barrel, up 0.30% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 483.9 yuan per barrel, down 1.97% for the week [5]. - Geopolitical tensions initially supported oil prices, but mid - week, less - than - expected inventory drawdowns in the US, Russia's plan to increase exports after refinery attacks, and India's consideration of importing Russian oil led to a decline in oil prices [5]. - Due to increased supply from OPEC+ and lackluster global demand, there is a greater prospect of market surplus in 2025 and 2026, which may push down prices [6]. - Geopolitical risk premiums are expected to support oil prices as the possibility of a quick cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is low [6]. - Indian refineries are expected to increase Russian oil imports by 10% - 20% in September, or 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day [5][7]. - The attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity, causing a local supply crisis, but also potentially increasing Russian crude oil exports [6]. - Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound at low levels. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 475 - 505, and long - term long positions can be held [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - WTI crude futures closed at $64.01 per barrel, up 0.38% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $67.46 per barrel, up 0.30% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 483.9 yuan per barrel, down 1.97% for the week [5]. - Geopolitical talks between the US, Ukraine, Russia, and the EU were deadlocked, and Russia's repeated attacks on Kiev supported oil prices in the early part of the week. Mid - week, less - than - expected inventory drawdowns in the US, Russia's plan to increase exports after refinery attacks, and India's consideration of importing Russian oil led to a decline in oil prices [5]. - As of the week of August 26, the speculative net - long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased by 23,848 contracts to 206,543 contracts; the net - long positions in WTI crude oil futures held by speculators decreased by 10,737 contracts to 109,472 contracts [5]. - A US judge panel upheld a previous ruling that Trump wrongly invoked an emergency law to impose tariffs, and the US government has time to appeal to the Supreme Court [5]. - Indian refineries are expected to increase Russian oil imports by 10% - 20% in September, or 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day [5][7]. - Ukraine's attack on 10 Russian refineries has disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity, causing a local supply crisis, but also potentially increasing Russian crude oil exports [6]. 3.2 Related Information - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and it may continue to increase production, which could lead to a large supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 and push down prices [6]. - Most respondents believe that Trump's threat to Russian crude oil buyers has limited impact on the oil market as OPEC+ and other suppliers can fill the supply gap [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound at low levels. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 475 - 505, and long - term long positions can be held [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot Weekly Prices: The current prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Chinese Shengli crude oil, Dubai crude oil, and OPEC's basket of crude oil prices are $67.62, $64.16, $70.09, $65.60, $70.16, and $70.10 respectively, with changes of - 0.29, 1.03, 1.16, 1.04, 1.19, and 0.91 and percentage changes of - 0.43%, 1.63%, 1.68%, 1.62%, 1.73%, and 1.31% respectively [10]. - Cushing Inventory: As of August 22, the Cushing inventory was 22.632 million barrels, a decrease of 838,000 barrels [11]. - EIA Inventory: As of August 22, the EIA inventory was 418.292 million barrels, a decrease of 2.392 million barrels [12]. 3.5 Position Data - CFTC Fund Net - Long Positions: As of August 26, the net - long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 109,472 contracts, a decrease of 10,737 contracts [18]. - ICE Fund Net - Long Positions: As of August 26, the net - long positions in Brent crude oil futures were 206,543 contracts, an increase of 23,848 contracts [19].