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大越期货PVC期货早报-20250901
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-01 06:18
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Likely factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [8][10] - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [10] - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [11] - Expected trend: The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,874 - 4,940. Continued attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Likely factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [8][10] - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [10] - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply side: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 330,135 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.57%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 125,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.34%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly [7] - Demand side: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.61%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, flat month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 69.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.27 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [7][8] - Cost side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 399.2026 yuan/ton, with losses increasing by 79.20% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 627.9512 yuan/ton, with losses increasing by 6.10% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,717.05 yuan/ton, with profits decreasing by 0.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure [7] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, and production of different types of PVC, as well as operating rates and profit margins of downstream industries [13] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trend chart of PVC basis, including the basis, PVC market price in East China, and the closing price of the main contract [15][16] 3.5 PVC Futures Market - The report shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract, as well as the position changes of the top 5/20 seats [19] 3.6 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the historical trend chart of the main contract spreads of PVC futures, including 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [21][22] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Lanthanum Coke - The report shows the historical data of lanthanum coke prices, costs, profits, operating rates, inventory, and daily production [24][25] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide - The report shows the historical data of calcium carbide prices, costs, profits, operating rates, maintenance losses, and production [27][28] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt - The report shows the historical data of liquid chlorine and raw salt prices, production, and monthly production [30][31] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda - The report shows the historical data of caustic soda prices, costs, profits, operating rates, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, and inventory [32][33][34] 3.11 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - The report shows the historical data of PVC production capacity utilization rates, profits, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of sample enterprises [36][37][38] 3.12 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - The report shows the historical data of PVC traders' daily sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream industries [40][41][42] 3.13 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - The report shows the historical data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [54][55] 3.14 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - The report shows the historical data of vinyl chloride imports, dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, and price spreads [56][57] 3.15 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports [60]