Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper price broke upward this week. The market order transactions remained resilient, and the difference between refined and scrap copper prices was tight. There are concerns about anode copper production in September and October, and potential squeeze - out risks should be noted [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, with imports providing an increment from January to July. August was a seasonal off - peak for demand, but there was a slight improvement in the second half of the month. In September, inventory is expected to decline. Pay attention to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - The zinc price fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply increased in August, and demand was seasonally weak domestically but had some resistance overseas. Short - term rebound is expected, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take a short - position in the long - term. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and positive spreads between months can be noted [4]. - For nickel, the production of pure nickel remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while overseas inventory remained stable. The situation in Indonesia needs continuous attention [6]. - The stainless - steel market had some passive production cuts by steel mills. Demand was mainly for rigid needs, costs were relatively stable, and inventory remained unchanged. Follow the situation of the Indonesian parade [9]. - The lead price fluctuated this week. Supply was expected to be tight, demand improved slightly, but inventory was at a high level. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [11]. - The tin price oscillated upward this week. The domestic market was in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold positions at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [14]. - For industrial silicon, the production in Xinjiang is expected to accelerate, and the southwest production is stable. The short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption of production of Hesheng. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. - The lithium carbonate price decreased this week. The core contradiction is the long - term over - capacity and short - term supply disruptions. The price has strong downward support [19][20]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Market Data: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 55, the spread increased by 133, and the LME inventory increased by 950. The copper price broke upward this week [1]. - Fundamentals: Market orders were resilient, and the difference between refined and scrap copper prices was tight. Some regions' scrap copper rod production decreased, and there are concerns about anode copper production in September and October [1]. Aluminum - Price and Market Data: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 100. Supply increased slightly, and demand was in a seasonal off - peak in August [1]. - Inventory and Outlook: In September, inventory is expected to decline. Pay attention to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory situation [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 120, and the LME inventory decreased by 1500. The zinc price fluctuated narrowly this week [4]. - Supply and Demand: Supply increased in August, domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand had some resistance. Short - term rebound is expected, and long - term short - position is recommended [4]. Nickel - Price and Market Data: From August 25 - 29, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 500, and the LME inventory decreased by 132. The production of pure nickel remained at a high level, and demand was weak [6]. - Situation in Indonesia: The parade in Indonesia turned into a riot, and the situation needs continuous attention [6]. Stainless Steel - Price and Market Data: From August 25 - 29, the price of 430 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 30. Some steel mills had passive production cuts [9]. - Supply and Demand: Demand was mainly for rigid needs, costs were relatively stable, and inventory remained unchanged. Follow the situation of the Indonesian parade [9]. Lead - Price and Market Data: From August 25 - 29, the lead price oscillated, the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000, and the exchange inventory reached a historical high of 70,000 tons [11]. - Supply and Demand: Supply was expected to be tight, demand improved slightly, but inventory was at a high level. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [11]. Tin - Price and Market Data: From August 25 - 29, the tin price oscillated upward, the LME inventory increased by 115, and the position increased by 15,147 [14]. - Supply and Demand: The domestic market was in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold positions at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [14]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Market Data: From August 25 - 29, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan changed, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased. The production in Xinjiang is expected to accelerate [17]. - Supply and Demand: The short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption of production of Hesheng. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Market Data: From August 25 - 29, the SMM electric and industrial carbon prices decreased by 350, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 930. The price decreased this week [19]. - Supply and Demand: The core contradiction is the long - term over - capacity and short - term supply disruptions. The price has strong downward support [19][20].
永安期货有色早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-01 06:25