大越期货豆粕周报：利好出尽，豆粕维持震荡-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger pattern, influenced by factors such as the weather in US soybean - growing areas, Sino - US trade negotiations, and domestic demand. The soybean market will maintain an oscillatory pattern, affected by South American soybean harvests, Sino - US trade tariffs, and domestic supply and demand [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt Not provided in the given content. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and Sino - US tariff negotiations. - In China, the arrival of imported soybeans remained high in August. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal, soybean meal is short - term oscillating and slightly stronger. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports price expectations, and soybean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal: - Positive factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills, and variable weather in US soybean - growing areas. - Negative factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in August and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [14]. - Soybeans: - Positive factors: Support from imported soybean costs and expected increase in domestic soybean demand. - Negative factors: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and end - of - period inventory of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend [22]. - USDA's Recent Six - Month Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: There have been some changes in the harvest area, yield, and end - of - period inventory of US soybeans in recent months [23]. - US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024: The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other progress of US soybeans in 2024 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [24][25]. - Brazilian Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in 2024/25: The planting and harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2024/25 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28]. - Argentine Soybean Planting Progress in 2024/25: The planting progress of Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [29]. 3.5 Position Data Not provided in the given content. 3.6 Fundamental Influence Factors Overview - Weather: The weather in US soybean - growing areas is short - term variable, with a neutral or positive impact. - Import Cost: The import cost is expected to oscillate and strengthen, with a neutral or positive impact. - Oil Mill Pressing: The demand for soybean meal is expected to be good in the short term, and the oil mill pressing volume remains high, with a negative impact. - Transaction: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stocking has recovered, and market transactions are expected to increase, with a neutral or positive impact. - Oil Mill Inventory: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills has returned to medium - high levels, and the inventory is expected to remain high, with a negative impact [9]. 3.7 Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies - Soybean Meal: - Fundamentals: US soybeans have rebounded after hitting the bottom. The domestic soybean meal is oscillating and rebounding, and may enter a short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger pattern. - Basis: The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is negative. - Inventory: The inventory of oil mills has increased, which is positive. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is negative. - Main Position: The main long positions have increased, and the funds have flowed out, which is positive. - Strategy: The futures are expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, and the M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3200. The option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [10][17][19]. - Soybeans: - Fundamentals: US soybeans are oscillating, and the domestic soybean market is oscillating and rebounding, with a neutral outlook. - Basis: The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is positive. - Inventory: The inventory of oil mills has increased slightly, which is positive. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is negative. - Main Position: The main long positions have decreased, and the funds have flowed out, which is positive. - Strategy: The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3900 and 4100. The option strategy is to wait and see [11][20]. 3.8 Supply and Demand and Market Structure Analysis - Supply and Demand: - The domestic oil mill soybean inventory fluctuates at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory increases slightly. The domestic futures market is oscillating, waiting for Sino - US tariff negotiations and the arrival of imported soybeans. - US soybeans are oscillating and slightly stronger, affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and weather in new - season soybean - growing areas. - The domestic pig price is oscillating and falling, and the demand is weak, with the price expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [56]. - Market Structure: - The soybean meal futures are oscillating in a range, and the spot discount has narrowed. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract is oscillating weakly [58][60]. 3.9 Technical Analysis - Soybeans: The futures are weakly oscillating, affected by the US soybean trend and domestic spot prices. Technical indicators show an oscillatory pattern, and the market is waiting for new guidance [65]. - Soybean Meal: The futures have rebounded after hitting the bottom, affected by US soybeans, rapeseed meal, and domestic demand. Technical indicators show an oscillatory pattern, and the market is waiting for new guidance [67]. 3.10 Next Week's Focus Points - Most Important: The weather in US soybean - growing areas, Sino - US trade relations and tariff negotiations, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [70]. - Second - most Important: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [71]. - Less Important: Macroeconomic factors, the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [71].