Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8245 - 8535 for the 2511 contract. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [6]. - For polysilicon, supply - side production scheduling continues to increase, demand - side silicon wafer and cell production continue to increase, and component production decreases in the short - term but is expected to recover in the medium - term. Overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48495 - 50615 for the 2511 contract [10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 90,000 tons, a 2.27% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 82,000 tons, a 380% increase from the previous week, and demand has increased [6]. - Inventory: Silicon inventory is 213,000 tons, at a low level; organic silicon inventory is 54,300 tons, at a low level; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 54,600 tons, at a high level; social inventory is 541,000 tons, a 0.36% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 173,500 tons, a 0.91% decrease from the previous week; and the inventory of major ports is 119,000 tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week [6]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 3254 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On August 29th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 560 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions have increased [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a 6.52% increase from the previous week. The production scheduling for August is predicted to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 15.63GW, a 27.17% increase from the previous week; the inventory was 180,500 tons, a 3.67% increase from the previous week, and currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In August, the production scheduling is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase from the previous month. In July, the cell production was 58.19GW, a 0.20% increase from the previous month; last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 7.03GW, a 20.99% increase from the previous week, and currently, cell production is in a loss state. In August, the production scheduling is 59.15GW, a 1.64% increase from the previous month. In July, the component production was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase from the previous month; the expected component production in August is 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease from the previous month; the domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month; the European monthly inventory is 29.8GW, a 2.29% decrease from the previous month, and currently, component production is in a profitable state [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,570 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,430 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On August 29th, the price of N - type dense material was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 555 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 213,000 tons, a 14.45% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a historical low for the same period [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions have decreased [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - The prices of various industrial silicon contracts and spot prices have shown different degrees of decline, and inventory has also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [17]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview - The prices of various polysilicon contracts and related product prices have shown different degrees of change, and production, inventory, and other data have also changed [19]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The report shows the trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon over time [22]. 5. Industrial Silicon Inventory - It presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises over time [25][26]. 6. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - It shows the weekly production trends of sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production trends by specification, as well as the enterprise start - up rate trends [29][30][31]. 7. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - It shows the cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan regions and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang region over time [35]. 8. Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Tables - The weekly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon over time. The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the actual consumption, export, import, and other data for different months [37][40]. 9. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC Price and Production Trends: It shows the DMC capacity utilization rate, cost - profit, and production trends over time [43]. - Downstream Price Trends: It shows the price trends of products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 over time [45]. - Import - Export and Inventory Trends: It shows the import, export, and inventory trends of DMC over time [49]. 10. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation: It shows the waste aluminum recycling, inventory, import of aluminum crushed materials, and the import - export situation of unfabricated aluminum alloy, as well as the price trends of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and the cost - profit trends of imported ADC12 [52]. - Inventory and Production Trends: It shows the monthly production trends of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly start - up rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory trends of aluminum alloy ingots [55]. - Demand (Automobiles and Wheels): It shows the monthly production of automobiles, the export trends of aluminum alloy wheels, and the monthly sales of automobiles [56]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Fundamental Trends: It shows the cost, price, inventory, production, start - up rate, and demand trends of polysilicon over time [60]. - Supply - Demand Balance Table: It shows the consumption, export, import, supply, and balance data of polysilicon for different months [63]. - Silicon Wafer Trends: It shows the price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export trends of silicon wafers over time [66]. - Cell Trends: It shows the price, production scheduling, actual production, inventory, start - up rate, and export trends of cells over time [69]. - Photovoltaic Component Trends: It shows the price, domestic and European inventory, monthly production, and export trends of photovoltaic components over time [72]. - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends: It shows the price trends of photovoltaic coatings, the import - export trends of photovoltaic films, the monthly production and export trends of photovoltaic glass, the price trends of high - purity quartz sand, and the import - export trends of solder strips [75]. - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm): It shows the cost and profit trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components over time [77]. - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends: No specific content analysis provided as there is no detailed description of the chart in the text.
工业硅期货早报-20250901
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-01 06:56