大越期货豆粕早报-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is influenced by factors such as the expected abundant supply in China, the high arrival of imported soybeans in August, and the discount of spot prices. It may enter a slightly bullish shock pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3000 and 3060 [8]. - The soybean market is affected by factors such as the expected increase in imported soybeans, technical selling pressure, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. It is currently in a neutral state, with the A2511 contract oscillating between 3880 and 3980 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively bullish data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports price expectations, and due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still a possibility of speculation on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. Soybean meal is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected recovery in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 79, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - Soybean: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 273, indicating a premium to futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 682.53 million tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - Soybean: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed in [10].