大越期货纯碱周报-20250901

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the soda ash industry from August 25 - 29, 2025, released by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [1]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - Last week, the soda ash futures continued to decline in a volatile manner, with the main contract SA2601 closing 2.26% lower than the previous week at 1,296 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe also dropped by 1.23% to 1,205 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase as previously - shut - down enterprises resume production, while the demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass remains weak. The industry's fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Trends - Futures: The main contract SA2601 of soda ash futures closed at 1,296 yuan/ton, down 2.26% from the previous week [2]. - Spot: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,205 yuan/ton, a 1.23% decrease from the previous week [2]. - Basis: The main basis was - 91 yuan/ton, a - 14.15% change [8]. 2. Supply - side Analysis - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using North China ammonia - soda method was - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that of East China co - production method was - 58 yuan/ton, showing a recovery from historical lows [17]. - Operating Rate and Output: The weekly industry operating rate was 82.47%, showing a seasonal decline. The weekly output was 71.91 tons, with heavy soda ash at 38.32 tons, at a historical high [20][22]. - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [26]. 3. Demand - side Analysis - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 97.80% [29]. - Downstream Demand: - Float Glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.96 tons, with an operating rate of 75.49% stabilizing [32]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume continued a significant downward trend [38]. 4. Inventory Analysis - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 186.75 tons, a 2.27% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [41]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 - 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, and growth rates [42]. 6. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The peak maintenance period in the industry is approaching, and production will decline [4]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the soda ash capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass has reduced production, weakening the demand for soda ash, and the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5][7]. 7. Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand has declined, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [6].