Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly with increased positions, rising spot premium, and strengthening basis. The cost - support logic for copper prices remains strong due to negative TC fees and rising raw material prices. The supply of domestic refined copper may decline slightly as port inventories of copper concentrates are low and raw material supply is tight. The downstream export demand may fall due to high US tariffs on copper semi - products, but domestic demand is expected to recover with policy support and the approaching traditional peak season. The overall inventory will remain at a medium - low level and gradually decrease with the recovery of consumption. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly rising implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows signs of red bar convergence. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with light positions, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,780 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,940.50 dollars/ton, up 38.50 dollars. The main contract's monthly spread is 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the position volume of the Shanghai copper main contract is 180,644 hands, up 6,818 hands. The top 20 futures positions in Shanghai copper are - 12,236 hands, up 6,550 hands. The LME copper inventory is 158,900 tons, up 950 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 79,748 tons, down 1,950 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 13,050 tons, down 50 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 20,200 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,900 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,955 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 60 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 56.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 120 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 80.26 dollars/ton, up 2.53 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 41.48 dollars/kiloton, down 0.33 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 70,300 yuan/metal ton, up 640 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,000 yuan/metal ton, up 640 yuan. The processing fee for rough copper in the south is 700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the north, it is 700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, down 3.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 0 yuan/ton, down 55,290 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,250 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 5357.977 billion yuan, up 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.26%, up 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.06%, down 0.04%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 9.69%, up 0.0106%; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, up 0.0541 [2]. Industry News - The Fed's Daly hinted at a September rate cut, saying there is a tension between the dual goals. The US core PCE price index in July rose 2.9% year - on - year, a new high since February 2025. China's economic sentiment generally continued to expand in August. The China Automobile Dealers Inventory Alert Index in August was 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. In July, the world's automobile sales reached 7.73 million units, up 7% year - on - year and down 4% month - on - month. In the first half of 2025, the new energy vehicle production and sales continued to grow at a high rate, the home appliance industry's revenue and net profit increased by over 9%, and the consumer electronics industry's revenue increased by 24.82% [2].
沪铜产业日报-20250901
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-01 08:42