瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. The current industry inventory is still at a high level, and although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure. Polycrystalline silicon rose today, but industrial silicon did not follow, and there may be a catch - up increase later. Operationally, if the price later falls below 8,200 yuan, consider mid - to long - term long positions on dips [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,495 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the main contract position was 285,449 lots, down 6,966 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 75,977 lots, down 4,134 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 50,453 lots, down 203 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 20 yuan, up 15 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis was 555 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 333,200 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polycrystalline silicon was 6.2 US dollars/kg, an increase of 1.26 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polycrystalline silicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 24,908.89 tons, a decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 70.59%, a decrease of 2.12 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 153,600 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - Longi Green Energy reduced its loss by more than 50% year - on - year in the first half of this year. In the second quarter, it reduced its loss by 60.66% year - on - year and 21.10% quarter - on - quarter. From January to July, the total operating income of national state - owned and state - holding enterprises was flat compared with the same period last year, and the total profit decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. In terms of industrial silicon, on the supply side, the production in the southwest region is expected to increase next week, while the production in Xinjiang is relatively stable. On the demand side, the silicone market is expected to increase production, the polycrystalline silicon industry is expected to increase production significantly in August, and the aluminum alloy industry has general demand [2]