瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is expected to tighten as more chlor - alkali plants are scheduled for maintenance in September, and the capacity utilization rate is predicted to continue to decline [1]. - Alumina industry's strong profit and production intention support caustic soda demand, and non - aluminum demand has a seasonal increase with some idle plants restarting [1]. - Shandong's liquid caustic soda inventory pressure is low. Spot prices have room to rise due to improved supply - demand. Future production expectations will still suppress far - month contract prices, and near - month contracts are expected to be stronger than far - month contracts [1]. - Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance around 2760 for SH2601 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2735 yuan/ton, the 1 - month contract closing price is 2735 yuan/ton, and the 5 - month contract closing price is 2794 yuan/ton [1]. - The net position of the top 20 futures is - 4746 lots. The main contract trading volume is 672088 lots, and the main contract position is 129563 lots [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 910 yuan/ton. Shandong's 32% caustic soda converted to 100% price is 2718.75 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 16 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton, and the price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton [1]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 400 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is - 200 yuan/ton [1]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13040 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3150 yuan/ton [1]. - From August 21st to 28th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8% [1]. 3.6 Industry News - As of August 28th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 379,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.25% and a year - on - year increase of 28.84% [1]. - SH2601 rose 2.82% to close at 2735 yuan/ton. Last week, two plants in Central China had short - term shutdowns, and one in Central China and two in the Northwest restarted. The caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.8% week - on - week to 82.4% [1]. - Last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.2% week - on - week to 85.58%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.2% week - on - week to 86.02%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 0.87% week - on - week to 64.73% [1]. - Last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 4.25% week - on - week to 379,600 tons, showing significant destocking [1].