瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250901

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach, with a focus on the price range of 271,000 - 277,000 yuan/ton. Currently, the tin market has high social inventory, slow demand recovery, and a weakening bullish sentiment. Technically, attention should be paid to the MA10 support [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 273,240 yuan/ton, down 5,410 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract is down 220 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 34,950 US dollars/ton, up 125 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 35,983 lots, down 10,315 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 2,826 lots, down 2,484 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,010 tons, up 115 tons, and the LME tin cancellation warrant is 230 tons, up 120 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,566 tons, up 75 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant is 7,215 tons, down 58 tons [3]. b. Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 272,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 272,430 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 740 yuan/ton, up 5,010 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 175 US dollars/ton, up 53 US dollars [3]. c. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 260,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 264,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin concentrates from Antaike remain unchanged at 10,500 yuan/ton and 6,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. e. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 177,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. f. Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4, the new order index rose to 49.5, and the non - manufacturing sector accelerated its expansion. The US core PCE price index in July rebounded to 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The Wa State in Myanmar restarted the mining license approval, but actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. The State Council executive meeting studied the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in some regions across the country [3]. g. View Summary - On the smelting side, the output increase in July was affected by factors such as enterprise复产 and intermediate product clearance. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period, with slow order recovery and little overall demand increase. Recently, social inventory has remained high, and tin downstream is cautious about purchasing after price increases. The spot premium has fallen to 0 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has increased. LME inventory has rebounded, but the spot premium has risen [3].