瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250901

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core View - On Monday, the I2601 contract decreased with reduced positions. The US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by former President Trump were illegal, exceeding his authority. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of iron ore from Australia and Brazil both increased this period, while domestic port inventories declined. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills decreased slightly, but the daily average molten iron output remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, the increase in iron ore supply and the decline in steel prices put pressure on iron ore prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are moving downward. The operation strategy is to be bearish on the oscillation, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 766.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.50 yuan; the position volume was 453,950 lots, a decrease of 19,658 lots. The spread between the I 1 - 5 contracts was 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 21,239 lots, an increase of 632 lots. The warehouse receipts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 1,900.00 lots, unchanged. The quoted price of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 101.7 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.77 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 827 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 813 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 21 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 707 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 16 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 47 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 103.60 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.30 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.48, an increase of 0.08. The estimated import cost was 847 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,556.80 million tons, an increase of 241.00 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,645.00 million tons, an increase of 182.70 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,388.02 million tons, a decrease of 56.18 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,007.19 million tons, a decrease of 58.28 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,462.00 million tons, a decrease of 133.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 18.00 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.22 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.45%, a decrease of 0.51%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 32.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.24 million tons. The BDI index was 2,025.00, an increase of 8.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.51 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.15 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.11 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.05 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.18%, a decrease of 0.16%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.00%, a decrease of 0.27%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,966 million tons, a decrease of 353 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 19.57%, an increase of 2.30%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 21.12%, an increase of 1.29%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.91%, an increase of 0.84%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.43%, a decrease of 0.21% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From August 25th to August 31st, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,556.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 241.0 million tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,902.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 141.7 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 1,894.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.2 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,529.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 187.4 million tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 1,007.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 191.9 million tons. From August 25th to August 31st, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,645.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 182.7 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,526.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 132.7 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,300.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 147.8 million tons [2]