油脂油料产业日报-20250901

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures were closed on Monday, and will test the support level in the range of 4,350 - 4,400 ringgit after resuming trading on Tuesday, which is also the 20 - day moving average. After gradually bottoming out, supported by the slowdown in production growth and the increase in exports, crude palm oil futures have the opportunity to stop falling and rebound. With the overall bullish fundamentals, crude palm oil futures may return to 4,500 ringgit, and if they effectively stand above 4,500 ringgit, there may be a possibility of a rising trend. Overall, the view is that the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and attention should be paid to the support and the gain or loss of the 20 - day moving average [3] - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level correction, with the short - term testing the support of the 20 - day moving average around 9,200 yuan. If they can stop falling and stabilize here, driven by the rebound of Malaysian palm oil, Dalian palm oil futures may follow and start a rising trend, with the possibility of approaching 9,500 yuan. If they effectively stand above 9,500 yuan, there may be a new high. Similarly, the view is that the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and attention should be paid to whether they can stop falling effectively at the 20 - day moving average [3] Soybean Oil - CBOT soybean futures and BMD palm oil futures were closed. Dalian soybean oil is greatly affected by domestic fundamentals. With the start of schools, the procurement from school canteens and surrounding restaurants supports the market. However, the sufficient supply of Brazilian soybeans and the high operating rate of domestic factories create a situation of both bullish and bearish factors. Today, the January contract of Dalian soybean oil fluctuated narrowly above 8,300 yuan. From the international perspective, as the US soybean harvest is approaching and the Sino - US negotiations are under focus, if the negotiation result is poor, CBOT soybeans and soybean oil may fall further, dragging down Dalian soybean oil. The January contract may fall below 8,300 yuan to 8,200 yuan. After this decline, the expected increase in demand will boost the price again. If the international related varieties do not continue to fall, Dalian soybean oil will rise again after a period of volatile adjustment [4] Bean Meal - Spot market: The near - term basis has fully shifted to the January contract. The fixed - price of oil mills has increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton following the market, and some traders are strongly willing to hold up prices. Since the concentrated delivery and inventory transfer of oil mills at the end of August have just ended and the September contract has entered the execution period, feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the market trading volume is average. Most buyers prefer to purchase the long - term contracts from January to May 2026 at low prices. The short - term spot price center has moved up, and it is expected to operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton [16] Group 3: Summary by Directory Oil Price and Spread - Oil monthly and inter - variety spreads: P 1 - 5 is 238 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; Y - P 01 is - 958 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan; etc. [5] - Palm oil futures and spot daily prices: Palm oil 01 is 9,384 yuan/ton, up 0.73%; BMD palm oil main contract is 4,380 ringgit/ton, down 1.55%; etc. [7] - Soybean oil futures and spot daily prices: Soybean oil 01 is 8,348 yuan/ton, down 0.03%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 52.1 cents/pound, down 0.52%; etc. [13] Oilseed Futures Price - Oilseed futures prices: Bean meal 01 closed at 3,054, down 1, or - 0.03%; CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1,053, up 4.75, or 0.45%; etc. [17] - Bean and rapeseed meal spreads: M01 - 05 spread is 235, unchanged; RM01 - 05 spread is 89, up 14; etc. [18] Other Information - International soybean crushing profit: The report shows the historical data of international soybean crushing profit and Chinese imported rapeseed crushing profit [32]