瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 1, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds strengthened collectively, with the yields of 1Y - 7Y maturities declining by about 0.25 - 1.25bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities declining by about 0.20bp to 1.77% and 2.02% respectively. Treasury bond futures also strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.02%, 0.08%, 0.17%, and 0.30% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 declined and fluctuated around 1.45%. [2] - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the manufacturing PMI in August rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line, with marginal improvements in supply and demand. The non - manufacturing PMI expanded at a faster pace, and overall production and business activities remained stable. The year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in July was 1.5%, and the decline in profits has narrowed for two consecutive months. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies to expand service consumption in September, which will promote the recovery of consumption growth. [2] - Overseas, the US PCE data for July met market expectations, the price level remained stable, and market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September continued to rise. Although the bond market has shown an independent trend recently, the current stock - bond cost - performance ratio is high, and the overall trend is still subject to changes in market risk appetite. In the short term, capital liquidity factors remain the core logic guiding bond market trading. [2] - The profit - taking sentiment of cash bond trading desks is strong. In the next stage, monetary policy will focus more on structural tools, and there is limited room for loosening at the aggregate level. Without incremental positive stimuli, the interest rate center lacks the impetus to decline further and may maintain high - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see for now. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices and Volumes: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.000, 105.595, 102.436, and 116.910 respectively, with increases of 0.17%, 0.08%, 0.02%, and 0.3% respectively. The trading volumes of T and TF main contracts increased by 10472 and 4284 respectively, while the trading volumes of TS and TL main contracts decreased by 8257 and 19489 respectively. [2] - Futures Spreads: Some spreads changed, such as the TL2512 - 2509 spread increasing by 0.10 to - 0.41, and the T2512 - 2509 spread decreasing by 0.06 to - 0.30. [2] - Futures Positions: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts changed. For example, the T main contract position increased by 7482, and the TF main contract position decreased by 145. The net short positions of T, TF, TS, and TL also changed to varying degrees. [2] 3.2 Cash Bond Market - CTD Bonds: The net prices of some CTD bonds changed, such as the 220019.IB (6y) increasing by 0.1553 to 105.7464, and the 220022.IB (2y) decreasing by 0.0068 to 102.1141. [2] - Active Treasury Bonds: The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 0.25bp, 1.75bp, 2.00bp, 1.75bp, and 1.00bp respectively. [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 2.74bp to 1.3174%, and the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 1.60bp to 1.3150%. The silver - pledged 7 - day rate decreased by 10.57bp to 1.4243%, and the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 7.20bp to 1.4380%. [2] - LPR Rates: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open market operations was 182.7 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 288.4 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 105.7 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase. [2] 3.5 Industry News - China's economic prosperity level continued to expand overall in August. The official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points. [2] - Li Chenggang, the Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce, visited the US and held talks with relevant US officials on Sino - US economic and trade relations. [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to improve the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and implement policies such as consumer goods trade - in. [2] 3.6 Key Data to Focus On - On September 1 at 17:00, the Eurozone's July unemployment rate; on September 2 at 22:00, the US August ISM manufacturing PMI. [3]