工业硅期货周报-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 11 - contract was in a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bullish volatile adjustment next week. The supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased [4][5][77]. - For polysilicon, the 11 - contract was also in a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bearish volatile adjustment next week. The supply is expected to continue increasing, demand is showing continuous recovery, and cost support has weakened [7][8][79]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - Price: The 11 - contract opened at 8930 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8390 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 6.04% [4]. - Supply: This week's supply was 90,000 tons, a 2.27% increase from the previous week. Sample enterprise production was 40,340 tons, a 5.51% increase. Yunnan's sample enterprise operating rate remained flat at 68.04%, Sichuan's increased by 6.23% to 32.59%, and Xinjiang's increased by 6.99% to 62.57%. The expected operating rate for this month is 53.8%, up 1.19 percentage points from last month [4]. - Demand: This week's demand was 82,000 tons, a 3.80% increase from the previous week. In polysilicon, inventory was 213,000 tons, lower than the historical average. In organic silicon, inventory was 54,300 tons, lower than the historical average, with a production profit of 105 yuan/ton and an operating rate of 70.59%. In aluminum alloy, inventory was 54,600 tons, higher than the historical average [5]. - Cost: The production loss of oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang was 3254 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 541,000 tons, a 0.36% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 173,500 tons, a 0.91% decrease; and major port inventory was 119,000 tons, a 1.71% increase [5]. Polysilicon - Price: The 11 - contract opened at 52,320 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 49,555 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 5.28% [7]. - Supply: Last week's production was 31,000 tons, a 6.52% increase. The predicted production for August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from last month [7]. - Demand: Last week, silicon wafer production was 15.63 GW, a 27.17% increase, with an inventory of 180,500 tons, a 3.67% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell production in July was 58.19 GW, a 0.20% increase, and last week's inventory was 7.03 GW, a 20.99% increase, also in a loss state. Component production in July was 47.1 GW, a 1.72% increase, and the expected production in August is 46.82 GW, a 0.59% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [7]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,570 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 13,430 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 213,000 tons, a 14.45% decrease, at a historical low [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Industrial Silicon - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread: There are trends in the basis of the SI main contract, the price difference between East China 421 and 553 silicon, etc. [14][15]. - Inventory: There are trends in the inventory of delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the quantity of registered warrants [17][18][19]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: There are trends in the weekly production, monthly production by specification, and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions [21][22][23]. - Cost: There are trends in the costs of major production areas such as electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [26]. - Supply - Demand Balance: There are weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance [29][33]. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon: There are trends in DMC price, production, capacity utilization, profit, cost, downstream product prices, import - export, and inventory [35][37][41]. - Aluminum Alloy: There are trends in price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) [44][47][49]. - Polysilicon: There are trends in cost, price, inventory, production, demand, supply - demand balance, and the trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [52][53][55]. 3. Technical Analysis - Industrial Silicon (SI): The main 11 - contract was in a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bullish volatile adjustment next week. There are price and trading volume trends, as well as moving average data [75][77]. - Polysilicon (PS): The main 11 - contract was in a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bearish volatile adjustment next week. There are price and trading volume trends, as well as moving average data [78][79].