大越期货沥青期货早报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 31.3998%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44 percentage points. Refineries have recently reduced production, alleviating supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 17.1358%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 28.33%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33.86%, a month - on - month increase of 3.26 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 629.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 740.6729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the cost support will strengthen in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refinery's recent production reduction has alleviated supply pressure. The overall demand recovery stimulated by the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish; inventory remains flat; with the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support strengthens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3486 - 3528 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Bullish. The refinery's production reduction alleviates supply pressure, but overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. The inventory remains flat, and the cost support strengthens in the short term [8][10]. - Basis: On August 29, the spot price in Shandong was 3510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 21 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Neutral [11]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 1270000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70%; factory inventory was 674000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.86%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 190000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.67%. Social and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is increasing. Neutral [11]. - Futures Price Chart: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20. Neutral [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position increases. Bullish [11]. - Likely Influencing Factors: Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - Main Logic: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20]. - Spread Analysis - Main - Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [29]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report presents the historical price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends: The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [41]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - Production Volume: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [53]. - Refinery Asphalt Production Volume: The report presents the historical trends of refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: The report presents the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64]. - Social and Factory Inventories: The report presents the historical trends of social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: The report shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - Import - Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [74]. - Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [79]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production Volume: The report presents the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - Downstream Demand: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [86][90]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [95][98][99]. - Downstream Capacity Utilization: The report presents the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [99]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025, including data on monthly downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [104].