原油月评：供给宽松仍在，油价中期承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In August, the overall price of oil dropped significantly, with supply - side pressure outweighing the market's expectation of long - term macro - economic recovery. In the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum, with limited upside potential, while in the medium - to - long term, they remain under pressure [81]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Operation Strategy - Since August, the first - half decline has suppressed oil prices, resulting in a monthly decline. This month, oil prices are likely to remain under supply - side pressure and are unlikely to rebound significantly. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 450 - 520 yuan/barrel and adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. A bearish approach is advisable due to limited positive factors [13]. 2. Market Review - In August, supply - side pressure prevented a significant oil price rebound, and prices fluctuated at relatively low levels. Although some losses were recovered in the second half of the month, the recovery was limited despite high expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical instability [20]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Macroeconomic Factors - Inflation and Core Prices: Inflation persists, core prices are rising, and the quality of non - farm employment is deteriorating, which may not improve easily [24][27][30]. - Geopolitical Situation: The expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has decreased, the Israel - Hamas conflict in the Middle East may continue, and the negotiation between Iran and European countries has stalled, which may lead to continued problems in Iran's oil exports and support oil prices [34]. 3.2 Supply - side Factors - OPEC+ Production: In July, OPEC+ increased production. Saudi Arabia and Russia both raised output, and production may continue to rise in August. Attention should be paid to compensatory production cuts in Iran and Iraq, and Venezuela's exports may be restricted. The US oil production has slightly recovered [37][41][49]. 3.3 Demand - side Factors - Consumption Season: The peak consumption season is ending. Gasoline production may gradually decrease, while diesel production is picking up. Manufacturing in China and the US remains sluggish, while that in Europe shows a slight recovery. The production of refined oil is shifting from gasoline to diesel [52][55][58]. 3.4 Inventory Factors - Crude Oil: The US crude oil inventory decreased in the week ending August 22 and 23, and the decline was in line with market expectations. The inventory may continue to fall in the short term [70]. - Refined Oil: The US gasoline inventory decreased, and the refined oil inventory had a large decline in the week ending August 23. Seasonal consumption led to inventory reduction, which may ease in mid - September [73]. 3.5 Spread Factors - In August, the cracking spread of North American gasoline and diesel was relatively stable. Diesel cracking slightly declined in the second half of the month, and gasoline was relatively strong. In the domestic market, as the travel season ends, refineries may shift to diesel production, which may support the cracking performance of fuel oil [77]. 4. Viewpoint Summary - In August, the center of oil prices moved down significantly. In the short term, the downward space of oil prices is limited due to the North American consumption season, but in the medium - to - long term, supply - side pressure will continue. Geopolitical factors will increase price volatility [81].