棉花早报-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has arrived, and there are significant differences in the market. Considering that it's just the beginning of the peak season, even if short - term orders are not ideal, there is still time, so the possibility of a sharp decline is relatively small. Conversely, an upward trend requires positive news to trigger. The short - sellers are waiting for time, while the long - sellers are waiting for news. The main 01 contract on the futures market continues to fluctuate around 14,000 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: According to the ICAC August report, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows that the production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China imported 50,000 tons of cotton in July, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,479 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,454 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending cotton inventory in the 2025/26 season in August is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral trend [6]. - Main Position: The overall position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is a bullish signal [6]. - Positive Factors: The previous reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the United States and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. There is an increasing expectation for the consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [7]. - Negative Factors: The trade negotiations have been postponed, and the current export tariffs to the United States are relatively high. Overall, foreign trade orders have declined, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton is about to be listed [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: The total global cotton production in the 2024/25 season (August estimate) is 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Total consumption is 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory is 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 742,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%) year - on - year. The price forecast for the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrower year - on - year fluctuation, reflecting the expectation of supply - demand balance [13]. - Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for China: For the 2025/26 season, the estimated production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [15]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.