大越期货纯碱早报-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. With few alkali plant overhauls, supply remains at a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has declined, leading to weaker terminal demand. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high. Short - term soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, and inventory is at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei was 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.07%. The main basis was - 91 yuan/ton, with no change [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei was 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method was - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method was - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has recovered from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 82.47%, showing a seasonal decline. The weekly output of soda ash was 71.91 tons, including 38.32 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity, with new capacities of 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned new capacity of 750 tons in 2025 (with an actual planned production of 100 tons) [22]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 97.80% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.96 tons, and the operating rate was 75.49%, showing stability [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has continued a significant downward trend [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.8675 million tons, a decrease of 2.27% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [37]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates of various indicators in different years [38]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The peak season of summer overhauls is coming, and production will decline [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launching plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historical high in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash. The positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5].